Beyond Tribalism

Despite Kibaki's having driven Kenya's economic growth from a negative rate to over 5 percent each year, not all Kenyans have felt the rewards of the country's increased prosperity. Again, part of this has to do with ethnicity, as Kibaki is perceived as having most greatly rewarded the Kikuyu community with high-paying government posts and business contracts. But part has to do with Kenya's high poverty rate, which is 56 percent nationally. "Under Kibaki's government we have had remarkable economic growth. At the same time we have had an unprecedented expansion of poverty. The inequalities in the country have widened," says Kepta Ombati, chief executive of the Kenyan nonprofit Youth Agenda.

Postelection violence is occurring almost exclusively in poor areas, where people are rising up because they often have very little to lose. Mathare and Kibera, site of most of Nairobi's violence, are the city's most impoverished slums, filled with dilapidated homes, wandering animals, unemployment, and daily conflict.

In addition, the youth of the people who have taken to the streets underscores that Kenya is also facing a generational battle. This was playing out even before the election, when the 62-year-old Odinga marketed his campaign against the 76-year-old Kibaki as one of a younger person trying to overturn an old-world and out-of-touch administration. "Young people felt that this was a generation of septuagenarians and octogenarians, and they felt it was a remote government," says Ombati. "They didn't feel it was their government."

Indeed, last week's election—which by some estimates drew a 70 percent voter turnout—saw an unprecedented level of youth involvement. According to Youth Agenda, 68 percent of registered voters in Kenya are between the ages of 18 and 35. On Election Day Mathare was hardly the only polling station showcasing the youthful enthusiasm and optimism that was to turn so sour when Kenya's Electoral Commission announced that the popular Odinga had lost the race. "You have an intergenerational conflict," says Juma. "The younger people who are dispossessed, they're seeing a system that isn't supporting them at all. They have no commitment to the current system, because it has excluded them."

Within the coming weeks the international community and Kenyans themselves must commit to brokering a compromise between the two parties. But even if a settlement is reached, the disillusionment of Kenya's young people could have consequences that extend beyond the life of the current government. Negotiators, too, will have to delve more deeply into the nuances of the conflict and avoid what Harvard's Juma calls "the template [of thinking] about Africa in terms of ethnic differences." Masawa, the young election volunteer, phrases it more simply. "Back in 2002 we thought things would change more," he said on Election Day. "But it's always the same story. We want those old guys out."

© 2008