BETWEEN THE LINES
Jonathan Alter
Who Can Stop Obama?
His Iowa win gives him momentum that will be hard to slow.
With his victory tonight, Barack Obama is now the strong favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president. The only one who can stop Obama from making history is Obama.
It's hard to believe a few thousand votes in Iowa can have so shaken the political landscape, but the front-loading of the primary process—originally meant to be a way to settle on Hillary Clinton early so she could concentrate on defeating the GOP in November—has backfired badly for the Democratic Party establishment.
Unless he makes a terrible mistake in this weekend's WMUR debate in New Hampshire, Obama will be the strong favorite to win in the Granite State. That leaves 18 days until the South Carolina primary, but even that time will probably not be enough for Clinton to fight her way back. With half of South Carolina's Democrats being African-American, her chances won't be good.
Many blacks have been waiting to see if Obama was for real. Now that white Iowa has voted for him, they will likely move strongly toward him. That was the pattern among black voters when Obama ran for the Senate in Illinois.
Sources within John Edwards's campaign tell me that if Edwards drops out (unlikely before New Hampshire), he will throw his support to Obama. Should the Illinois senator win New Hampshire and South Carolina, it will be next to impossible to prevent him from becoming the nominee on Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.
The only way he gives Edwards or Clinton a second wind is to mess up. The press will get more intense, increasing the likelihood of a crippling mistake. But so far, Obama has suffered no more than the normal number of relatively minor gaffes. One or two flat debate performances won't be enough to sink him. It will take the kind of big gaffe that only rarely transforms campaigns.
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Member Comments
Posted By: SmartestManAlive @ 03/04/2008 12:26:36 PM
Comment: C'mon white people! Wake up! Let's keep the White House white!
Posted By: dustbindiva @ 02/22/2008 8:29:19 PM
Comment: Before Obama gained recognition, Clinton's people had annointed her the Democratic nominee. Everyone is now caught up in the excitement of someone so different as Obama. It is very energiziing.
Posted By: dustbindiva @ 02/22/2008 8:23:26 PM
Comment: Hillary has none of the personal attributes that make Obama a great potential leader, statesman and diplomat to represent the U.S. She has no originality and no humility. Her demeanor is one of someone upon whom is bestowed the mantle of President, but she has not achieved stature on her own like Obama. She was not qualified to be Senator, and has no more experience than Obama. What did she accomplish during 8 years as the President's wife? Why did not Chris Matthews ask a Clinton supporter what Hillary's accomplishments are? No one really knows. Did she make the decisions that we supposed Bill Clinton made? Clinton is inventing smears against Obama which don't have any substance. Obama quoted some great men in his speech which is not plagiarizing. The Clintons are reaching for straws and trying to bring Obama down to their unscrupulous behavior. Hillary is all sugar and spice when things go her way, but spiteful and nasty if she is out done. I hope the Clintons stay in the past and let someone who has new ideas and a diverse background represent the U.S. The domestic issues will sort themselves out since those plans are made by advisors, not the candidates. They are not economists or social scientists.