‘The Status Quo Lost’

It was the night of the insurgents. Whether Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama can carry their dramatic victories in the Iowa caucuses all the way to their parties' nominations will not be known for weeks or perhaps months. What is certain is that neither the Republican nor the Democratic presidential races will ever be the same after Thursday night.

In the subdued ballroom of the Hotel Fort Des Moines—Hillary Clinton's headquarters—the air of certainty that once surrounded her campaign melted away entirely. The New York senator's supporters were forced to absorb the news that what they feared would be a narrow Obama victory had become a convincing win, leaving her not even in second place—but third. Among the Republicans, Mike Huckabee's dramatic surge in the polls over the last six weeks—his leap from dark horse to front runner—was signed and sealed by Iowa voters, who gave him a 34 percent to 25 percent win over big-spending Mitt Romney. "The one thing that's clear," said second-place Democratic finisher John Edwards, summing things up for the entire field, "is the status quo lost and change won."

Or at least the perception of change won. Clinton tried to make the case that she was the Democratic candidate who would most make a difference in Washington. Iowa caucusgoers seemed to disagree resoundingly, resurrecting all the old questions about whether anti-Clinton sentiment in the country remains too strong to make her president. The voters decisively preferred Obama, who's been a U.S. senator for only two years, by 38 percent to Hillary's 29 percent, with Edwards finishing at 30 percent. A pumped-up Obama called his victory a "defining moment in history." Sounding at times like a revivalist preacher, the Illinois legislator told a packed house of delirious supporters: "They said this day would never come … You showed that in the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can change it."

Clinton, in her concession speech, sought to be magnanimous even as she harked anew to the theme of change, in what could be an early sign of a shift in emphasis headed into the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. Referring to the "unprecedented turnout," Clinton declared: "We are sending a clear message that we are going to have change and that change will be a Democratic president in the White House in 2009." But she also returned to her traditional theme: that only she can win the marathon that "the rest of this campaign" will entail, and that experience still makes a difference. "How will we win in November 2008? By nominating a candidate who can go the distance and who will be president on day one," Clinton said to forced cheers from the disappointed crowd.

Going into New Hampshire and the blizzard of primaries to follow, Clinton aides hope for a reprise of the Bill story: Comeback Kid II. "She's got to turn the tide where Bill turned the tide," says one adviser, not authorized to speak on the record about strategy. The Clinton campaign is pinning its hopes on Nevada (which votes Jan. 19), California and other "Super Tuesday" states where her operation is far stronger than it was in Iowa.

On the GOP side, Huckabee's folksy ease and humor on the trail—and his preacher's ease in speaking about his evangelical Christian faith against Romney's hesitant handling of his Mormonism—seemed to weigh heavily in his favor. "What we saw was a very big turnout in areas that would be favorable to Mike Huckabee," conceded Kevin Madden, Romney's spokesman. "Obviously in some western parts of the state … there is a large evangelical portion of the base vote that seemed to really identify with Mike Huckabee." Huckabee was humbled by his victory but no less confident that he'd end up at "1600 Pennsylvania Avenue a year from now."