Taking Assad's Pulse

Bashar also confronts a gathering sense of frustration and decline. Syria's statist economy shrank by more than 4 percent in 1997, and most wage earners must scrape by on salaries of less than $100 a month. Even Assad's reputation for running a brutally efficient police state has suffered. In December, a mob sacked the American ambassador's residence (last week Syria paid an undisclosed sum to Washington in compensation).

A diplomatic victory that could restore Assad's luster--regaining the Golan Heights, lost to Israel in 1967--seems to have slipped away. Negotiations with Israel ended three years ago when then prime minister Shimon Peres abruptly pulled out of U.S.-brokered talks a few months ahead of elections he lost. When Netanyahu came to power, Assad said he wouldn't resume talks unless Netanyahu honored an alleged commitment by Peres to give back all of the Golan Heights as part of any final peace accord. "There is nothing to indicate that Netanyahu is serious about wanting to have peace between Israel and Syria," says Syrian foreign policy specialist Murhaf Jouejati.

No one yet is prepared to say that Hafez Assad is losing his grip. But so far an Assad dynasty seems far from a sure bet. An open power struggle in Damascus could easily turn violent and push back the chances for a peace deal between Israel and the last rejectionists among its neighbors. Little wonder that Assad drew stares in Amman.

© 1999