Setback

After the long lines and the big poll numbers, Barack Obama's raucous crowds gave way just a few days later to a big, but notably quiet, gathering in the huge gym at Nashua High School South on Tuesday night.

The contrast with last week's raucous crowd in Des Moines was stark. Then, Obama's Iowa supporters cheered every piece of news on the projected TV screens—especially the numbers showing that their candidate had beaten Hillary Clinton among women voters. In New Hampshire, as word spread that the exit polls were suggesting that Clinton had won big among women voters in New Hampshire, the crowd looked worried.

In Iowa Obama's senior aides spent the evening with the press, messaging good news to reporters every few minutes. In New Hampshire there were almost no senior Obama aides to be found.

When Jim Margolis, Obama's admaker, walked briskly through the press area at the campaign's election site, NEWSWEEK asked how it was going. He tilted his hand from side to side, suggesting that the results were finely balanced. When asked about his numbers by e-mail, David Axelrod, Obama's senior strategist, would say only that it was close. Behind the scenes, in the Obama campaign's boiler room at the candidate's hotel in Nashua, the early numbers suggested a five-point win for the Illinois senator.

In fact, the Obama camp had been cautious for several days—despite the big poll leads and the media speculation about a decisive win. Earlier in the day Axelrod had cautioned against believing reports of double-digit leads. "The polls are out of control," he said at Obama's last preresult rally, at Dartmouth College in Hanover. "I don't buy into the tidal wave idea."