MONEY CULTURE
Daniel Gross
The Other Real Estate Crisis
Are ghost malls going to haunt the economy?
So far, America's real-estate agony has been confined largely to the vast residential sector. Commercial (office buildings) and retail (malls, strip malls, big boxes) real estate have held up rather well, even though those markets were propelled by the same factors that sent housing into orbit: easy credit, an abiding faith in perpetually rising asset values and misplaced optimism about economic expansion.
But when the economy slows and threatens to go into recession, it's usually bad for all classes of real estate. And despite President Bush's measured happy talk on the economy earlier this week, indicators are rising that American consumers are keeling over from exhaustion. Shoppers unwilling to shop spells trouble for the tenants of malls and strip malls—and for their owners and lenders. All of which suggests: get ready for the ghost mall!
The retail real-estate market has already started to slow. In the third quarter of 2007, 7.4 percent of retail space nationwide was vacant, according to Reis Inc. A vacancy rate of 7.4 percent isn't tragic by any means. But it's the highest level since 2002, and it's up from 6.8 percent at the end of 2005. The third quarter of 2007 marked "the 10th consecutive quarter of flat or deteriorating retail occupancy at the national level," noted Sam Chandan, chief economist at Reis, in a recent report. Thanks to continuing growth in supply and flagging demand, there was about 140 million vacant square feet of retail space in the third quarter of 2007, up from 124.4 million vacant square feet at the end of 2006.
Malls aren't turning into haunted houses just yet, but they may be on their way, thanks to the recent wholesale shuttering of national retail chains. (This column's long-standing guiding principle has been that when a naturally observed event happens three times in relatively short time-frame, it's a trend. Like, for example, egregious right-wing hacks getting richly undeserved columns in large-circulation print publications.)
First came CompUSA, the electronics retailer that managed to make Carlos Slim Helu, one of the world's wealthiest man, a little less wealthy. Helu spent more than $800 million to buy the computer and electronics chain in 2000. But after years of losses, the Mexican billionaire threw in the towel on the brick-and-mortar business. Last month, CompUSAannounced it would shut down its remaining 103 stores. The week after Christmas, Macy's, whose 850 department stores frequently anchor malls, announced it would close nine large stores in Indiana, Texas, and Ohio.
The trend continued in the first week of January. Last week, Pacific Sunwear said it would close 154 stores of its urban clothing unit, demo, "as soon as is practical" and would also shutter its nine One Thousand Steps shops.
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Member Comments
Posted By: gllansing @ 03/12/2008 6:58:58 PM
Comment: Not only was your article a little over the top with the gloom and doom, but I couldn't help but notice that you
took the opportunity to show your true colors and, totally unrelated to anything, take a poke at Bill Kristol. What was that all about?
Posted By: michelsonB @ 02/25/2008 12:42:08 AM
Comment: Los Angeles 02/2008 DATELINE --- ACCORDING TO RECENT REPORTS, IT'S amazing how many homeowners will not fight the foreclsoure process. According to borrowerhotline .com, more than 70% of american homeowners accept their fate and eat the pain of a forclosure. This information is offered by Maher Soliman, the web site publisher and managing director for NLS.
According to the website, in June this year the secretary of Housing and Economic Development of the Patrick administration Dan O???Connell took the initiative along with government officials and top mortgage firms??? executives from Massachusetts to develop means through which foreclosure can be avoided and the foreclosure victims can be aided.
Delinquent Sub-prime loans were accentuated to be the main reason responsible for the soaring rise of foreclosure victims. Borrowers with bad credit history were allowed with high risk loans as they were tempted seeing the initial rates were low. The ravaging effect started when the rates of interest shot up unexpectedly high. Enactment of laws checking the foreclosure rates were suggested by Governor Deval L. Patrick.
In April in meeting called by the Patrick administration it was suggested that the State should financially help to refinance loans to reduce foreclosure rates.
Reforms aiming to help the debtors to catch up were planned and corresponding schemes were passed in 2006. The plan targeted to provide defaulting hose owners to catch up by extending the grace time from 60 to 125 days. Unfortunately the plan failed to go very far.
NLS and borrowerhotline are consumer homeowner advocates pushing to stop foreclosure due to predatory lending practices. Call Direct at telephone 310-435-2628
www.borrowerhotline.com ....and spread the word to friends and workers. This has to be stopped! Find out what you are entilted to receive!
Posted By: michelsonB @ 02/25/2008 12:41:44 AM
Comment: Los Angeles 02/2008 DATELINE --- It's amazing how many homeowners will not fight the foreclsoure process. According to borrowerhotline .com, more than 70% of american homeowners accept their fate and eat the pain of a forclosure. This information is offered by Maher Soliman, the web site publisher and managing director for NLS.
According to the website, in June this year the secretary of Housing and Economic Development of the Patrick administration Dan O???Connell took the initiative along with government officials and top mortgage firms??? executives from Massachusetts to develop means through which foreclosure can be avoided and the foreclosure victims can be aided.
Delinquent Sub-prime loans were accentuated to be the main reason responsible for the soaring rise of foreclosure victims. Borrowers with bad credit history were allowed with high risk loans as they were tempted seeing the initial rates were low. The ravaging effect started when the rates of interest shot up unexpectedly high. Enactment of laws checking the foreclosure rates were suggested by Governor Deval L. Patrick.
In April in meeting called by the Patrick administration it was suggested that the State should financially help to refinance loans to reduce foreclosure rates.
Reforms aiming to help the debtors to catch up were planned and corresponding schemes were passed in 2006. The plan targeted to provide defaulting hose owners to catch up by extending the grace time from 60 to 125 days. Unfortunately the plan failed to go very far.
NLS and borrowerhotline are consumer homeowner advocates pushing to stop foreclosure due to predatory lending practices. Call Direct at telephone 310-435-2628
www.borrowerhotline.com ....and spread the word to friends and workers. This has to be stopped! Find out what you are entilted to receive!