So Right, Yet So Wrong

Since it happened in this case, is that going to influence how close to a primary your organization will poll?
It certainly may. Our scientific procedures here at Gallup are an evolving process. We're constantly looking for ways to improve. In this situation we are analyzing everything we did. We will consider very carefully, when we poll in a future primary state, continuing to poll through Monday night. We'll take what happened in New Hampshire into account in making that decision.

Has there ever been this defiance of poll numbers during such a critical primary before?
I don't have all the data in front of me, but it's rare that all of the polls show that one candidate is leading going into a primary-in many of them, including our own, by such large margins-and then the other candidate wins. It's unusual. That's why I was surprised.

Are there any post-New Hampshire signs that we might see this sort of defiance again?
Well, we don't know. We'll have to see. We'll monitor carefully and be very sensitive. I'm sure the media are going to be very sensitive too. I'm sure the gatekeepers of the media will downplay reaching any major conclusions based on pre-election polls. Usually polling is quite accurate. It's an important component of our election process. We'll continue to poll and, hopefully, for the most part, we'll be able to document what people are telling us is what they do on Election Day. If not, then we've learned something. We've learned that we've moved to a faster-changing environment. That this year, in '08, voters will turn; that they are not set in their ways.

According to Gallup data, it's rare for Iowa and New Hampshire to vote for different Democratic candidates. What could this surprise split mean for the overall race?
Well, it's arguably a different situation than, say, in '04, when one candidate won both states and was kind of on his way. They split the first two, and even our poll after Iowa nationally showed Clinton and Obama were tied. It all suggests that the race is far from over and there's much more excitement to come. I think that's what this tells us.

On the GOP side, McCain won, as polls predicted. Why was that win so in line with the numbers?
That's the norm. That's typical. We didn't poll in Iowa, but the people that polled in Iowa found roughly the same thing the week before. They polled, got estimates of voting, and that's what played out in the caucuses. The fact that on the McCain side, the Republican side, the actual voting behavior was close to our weekend poll was not surprising.

His victory has opened up the GOP race even more. Could that lead to any future New Hampshire-like results?
Not necessarily. We had no problems in Iowa or New Hampshire on the Republican side. So I wouldn't think the fact that it's close among these candidates will produce any unusual challenge.