But with just 12 months left in his tenure to achieve a Palestinian state—which, along with Iraq, would be his main legacy—this kind of simplistic, conflationary thinking just won't cut it anymore. Bush isn't fooling anyone. He may be right in saying that waiting for a democratic Palestinian authority under Abbas, and ignoring Yasir Arafat, was necessary; such a state is less likely to embrace terrorism, he argued. But it's also true that the elections that yielded this outcome (and which Bush insisted on) had some pretty dire effects, too. Mainly they empowered Hamas, which has taken over Gaza and regularly permits rockets to be fired on Israel—something Abbas is powerless to stop. So democracy solved one problem, created another and did nothing to resolve the basic issue—which is that Israelis and Palestinians want to enjoy the benefits of democracy on the same plot of land. A mixed blessing, to say the least.

Bush knows all this, of course. So it doesn't help his cause to pretend that democracy or the "universality of freedom," as he called it today, are going to do anything at all to get the Israelis or Palestinians to move on this intractable issue. Nor does it speed things along to say to the Palestinians, as Bush did today, "Do you want a future based upon a democratic state? Or do you want the same old stuff?" Those talking points are no answer to the signs that hung along the president's motorcade route—the silent testimony left by angry residents who had been ushered away. "Jerusalem is ours," one sign read. "No apartheid walls," said another. "Zionism is racism," read many.

Yes, Bush is committed to Palestinian statehood. His national security adviser, Steve Hadley, said Thursday evening that the president would be back, and Rice is expected to make several visits. Bush is also correct to say that past U.S. efforts to impose a solution have failed, and that he'd prefer to let the Israelis and Palestinians work out as much as they can themselves while he "nudges the process forward." "There's great anticipation that all an American president has to do is to step in," Bush said. "That's not how the system works."

But everyone knows this bilateral process is only going to run on its own for so long. Very soon now it will stall. Neither Abbas nor Olmert has anything close to the public support he needs to resolve basic issues, like West Bank settlements for the Israelis, or the right of return for the Palestinians. In order to give Abbas the "contiguous" state Bush says he should get ("Swiss cheese isn't going to work," Bush said), Olmert would need to oust many tens of thousands of Israeli settlers in long-developed neighborhoods. In order to surrender the right of return for Palestinians, an Israeli red line on which Olmert will never budge, Abbas will have to tell some 2 million of his countrymen in exile, many in refugee camps, they can never have their homes back. Both leaders know they risk ouster or even assassination if they give on these points, and they will avoid them until the end. Only a hard American shove can change things. The time for graciousness and rhetoric may be over.

© 2008