Rubik’s Cube

For Michiganders, Huckabee stressed his populist economic policies, refusing to apologize for growing the government in Arkansas and returning to his "little guy" roots whenever possible. "A lot of people are working harder this year than they worked two years ago," he said. "Even if they're making more money, they're not making enough money to keep up." Despite some forced foreign-policy moments—he cited his "nine trips" to Israel as international experience, and didn't really sell a line about seeing Iranian aggressors at the "gates of hell"—Huckabee gave a smooth, if somewhat defensive, performance.

Huckabee can survive a loss in Michigan, but Mitt Romney probably can't. The former Massachusetts governor was born and bred in the Great Lake State, and after early, unexpected losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, he needs to win one of the main events (sorry, Wyoming) if he hopes to salvage his sinking bid. At Thursday's debate, that meant a message focused almost entirely on the economy—and John McCain, who won the state in 2000. "Could we be headed for a recession?" Romney said, right out of the gate. "Absolutely. Do we have to be headed for a recession? Absolutely not." Then came the kicker: "Senator McCain recently said that some of the jobs that have left Michigan are never coming back. I disagree. I'm going to fight for every single job—Michigan, South Carolina, every state in this country."

It was Romney the Reaganesque optimist vs. McCain the "Can't Do" insider. Shifting the spotlight away from social conservatism, which he's emphasized for much of his bid, Romney now campaigns as an outsider biz-whiz bent on "changing" government. "My whole life has been about bringing change," he said. "I will change Washington. I will take it apart and put it back together simpler and smaller." Some people, Romney hinted, were "too Washington" for such "change." After tonight, there's no doubt whom Romney sees as his main rival in Michigan. But his effort, though solid, was likely too glancing to brake McCain's momentum.

McCain may have delivered the least polished or powerful performance of the assembled candidates, and yet he emerged as he entered: the closest thing to a Republican front runner. In addition to Romney's swipes, McCain brushed off barbs from Rudy Giuliani (I also supported the Iraq surge) and Fred Thompson (I disagree with your immigration plan)—both of which began with the phrase "my friend" and ended nearly as benignly. McCain is respected among his Republican rivals, and if Thursday was any indication, he'll likely arrive in Michigan and South Carolina unscathed. The Arizona senator already leads in the latest local polls, so expect him to continue to spotlight his support of the surge, which plays well in military-heavy South Carolina, and even emphasize the (gasp!) environment. Asked Thursday about the Reagan coalition, McCain mentioned Teddy Roosevelt and global warming—references that had more to do with winning over the independents and Democrats who can vote in the coming contests than appealing to any remaining Reaganatics.

Giuliani's strategy? Sit back and relax until Florida and Feb. 5. In fact, he was the only candidate who'd purchased national ad time on FOX News; a spot promising massive tax cuts ran during the first commercial break. And Ron Paul was used mostly as a punching bag. "Please could I participate in the current debate?" Paul said after a FOX moderator demanded, irrelevantly, that he tell "9/11 Truthers" to stop supporting his bid. As a strategy for surviving the upcoming blitz, it was as good as any.

© 2008