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Meantime, things could become even more volatile. In this weekend's presidential election, Serbs will choose between Boris Tadic and the ultranationalist Nikolic. Tadic has long said Serbia's future lies with the EU. Yet the idea of giving up Kosovo is a nonstarter, even at the risk of further delaying entry into the European club. Nikolic takes a harder line. Kosovo, he says, must remain with Serbia, and he believes the European project is more or less irrelevant to Serbia. Russia is the neighbor that matters. For now, Tadic appears to be the front runner. But an upset victory by Nikolic, and the arrival of a hard-line government, may send negotiations spinning further out of control. His Radical Party could forge an alliance with Kostunica's far-right Democratic Party of Serbia, throwing EU prospects even further into doubt. With so much at stake, the West must ask itself whether a free Kosovo is worth further humiliating a volatile, Russia-backed Belgrade in the heart of the Balkans. This is one small, poor Eastern state that the EU may eventually want more than it wants the EU.

© 2008

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