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Musharraf’s Last Stand

 

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It's easier to diagnose what went wrong than say what should be done to put it right. Some have argued for stronger military measures, but the Pakistani military (with U.S. assistance) has been fighting these forces with mixed success. Others argue for greater political efforts at reconciliation and rehabilitation, a view Musharraf himself shares. But these measures so far have not worked. Musharraf's deal with the tribal leaders in 2005 and 2006 have failed—by his own admission. Some critics argue that these were hasty arrangements, designed out of desperation. What is needed, they say, is a much broader effort to revive the politics of the tribal regions and Baluchistan (the other danger zone) and to integrate them more fully into Pakistan.

Counterinsurgency and nation-building, which is what we're talking about, is a long, hard slog. The Pakistani state has limited capacity, especially in regions that have been "no go" zones for hundreds of years. Even its much-vaunted Army isn't really up to the job, having been designed to fight the Indian Army, not small gangs of Pashtun warriors. But if there is a missing component to the battle against the new jihadists it is that throughout Pakistan, this is seen as America's war, or Musharraf's war, but not as Pakistan's war. No one has been able to enlist the Pakistani people in the effort to marginalize the militants and at the same time provide political and economic development, as well as an ideological alternative to tales of jihad and martyrdom. Right now Pakistan's politics are focused on an entirely different battle—over the president and his illegal power grabs. Very few are willing to join a struggle that he will spearhead. Unless he can find a way to take himself out of the spotlight, Musharraf and his fate will eclipse the serious security issues facing Pakistan.

The American debate has been, as is often the case, largely removed from reality. The two scenarios that obsess Western politicians—loose nukes and empowered mullahs—are overhyped. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is, by all accounts, firmly embedded in the command-and-control structure of its military, with multiple supervisors and ultimate oversight by the prime minister and president. The second, related worry—that Islamic militants will take over the country—is even less plausible. For better or worse, Pakistan is run by a military that is disciplined and (mostly) secular, especially in its current leadership. The country's politics are dominated by parties that are mainstream and moderate in their interpretation of Islam. Fundamentalists have never done well in Pakistan's elections, gaining just over 11 percent of the vote in the 2002 elections, held in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. Public-opinion polls all concur that these parties will be routed in February's elections.

The U.S. candidates' policy proposals have been depressing in their lack of seriousness. Does anyone believe that Pakistan would allow Washington and London to secure its nuclear arsenal? Or that it would meekly let the U.S. Army invade its territory to fight terrorists? The real question we face in Pakistan is what to do about the upcoming elections to ensure that they are free and fair. We need to walk Musharraf back from a power struggle in which he is pitted against an independent judiciary and democratically elected politicians. And above all we must find a way to work with the Pakistani people and not a handful of generals. Otherwise the intense anti-Americanism in Pakistan—fast rising because of our support for Musharraf—will produce a new wave of jihadists, born in the mountains of the frontier, tested in battle against the Pakistani Army and thirsting to fight the ultimate enemy, thousands of miles away.

© 2008

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: szbm @ 03/09/2008 12:56:41 PM

    I have failed to understand that all of a sudden why every body has started speaking against President Pervez Musharraf. He was the same person who when came into power in late 1999 with the blod less coup every body was jubilant in Pakistan. People welcomed him. Afterwards he was the person who changed the perception of Pakistan from a extrimist state to a new moderate state. He was the one who banned all the Jihadist groups operating within Pakistan. Yes i do agree that there were certain mistakes which his government had made but that doesnot mean that he was not patriotic. Moreover, on the Judiciary issue i belive that it should be the institution that should be strong not the individules. Why people are for the restoration of the deposed CJ, whereas the charges against him were a hidden truth. The same CJ abused the seat by addressing the rallies. So i think that it is more important to get the Institutions of judiciary strong rather than CJ Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary.

  • Posted By: shaista @ 01/31/2008 12:12:01 AM

    DURING an interview by the BBC Television, President Musharraf said that the day he felt he had become so unpopular that the Pakistanis no longer wanted him in power, he would quit (Jan 24).
    However, when asked how it would be determined that he was no longer required, he could not give any clear-cut reply and conveniently proposed that there was no other way except for him to conclude this himself.
    Apart from that, when his attention was drawn to the recent call by many former services chiefs and generals for him to step down, he said that these were the people who write newspaper articles ??? as if that is an unwise act. He must know that people like Tony Blair, Henry Kissinger and other senior diplomats and officials have also done that when they found it necessary, many of which have even appeared in Dawn, Mr Musharraf, too, had once or twice tried his hand at writing articles. So, what???s wrong with that?
    He then went on to say that these critics consist of two types of people: those whom he had removed and those who couldn???t get anything from him (meaning any posts or favours).
    And, what about the other services chiefs of the navy and the air force, the many judges (why were all 60 of them removed?), including former chief justices, the 23 senior ex- diplomats and prominent members of civil society, who want him to go, most of whom do not fit his description?
    Also, the numerous American and British legislators and even the prime minister of Canada, who wanted him to resign?
    The noted American expert on South Asia, Stephen Cohen, had written some weeks back that Mr Musharraf is either suicidal or out of touch with the situation. The US think tank, ???Cato Institute,??? has compared him to the former Shah of Iran and advised Washington to stop supporting this ???Shah of Pakistan??? otherwise the consequences will be as disastrous for the US and Pakistan as they were in the ca

    Musharaf is an Indian agents and working in accordance with their objectives and wishes. His last 8 years rule depicts his inner anti Pakistan sentiments and making the country situations worst just in accordance with Indians objectives
    The Kargil war were planned for to exclude the doubt on Musharaf as Indian agents for subsequent take over and strategies
    In kargil Musharaf make his own Army defeated and casualties were more than 65 wars
    Musharaf after take over make and run this country with that objective and exercised all that actions which India wanted
    The Pakistani Muslims often raised and protest against Babri Mosque and self bomb and destroy Red Mosque to make a ground for India to exercise the like situations where they want to do so.
    Further Pakistan often protest against Indian forces combating in Kashmir against terrorist now self exercised such fighting against their own people to make India free from such protest
    When India exercised such fighting Pakistan protest to Human Rights violations but now what Pakistan will respond as they self violate


  • Posted By: nawawimohamad @ 01/21/2008 7:21:55 AM

    It seems that Pakistan is not a sovereign country. It will always have to seek the blessings of the US before doing anything.

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