A Jail Break For Geriatrics

At any given time nowadays, upwards of 40 states' prison systems are under court orders to rectify overcrowding. Some states' prisons even have a ""zero sum'' status: the addition of a new inmate requires the release of an existing one--public safety at the mercy of arithmetic.

Therefore the practical question is not whether but which prisoners are going to be released before their full sentences have been served. And a salient fact is that age is the surest predictor of recidivism. These two variables vary inversely.

It is unclear what cocktail of biological and cultural factors determines this. But in any case, the rate of rearrest (for a felony or serious misdemeanor) for state prisoners within three years of release from prison is 68 percent among those ages 18 to 24; 65 percent among those 25-29; 63 percent among those 30-34; 57 percent among those 35-39; 49 percent among those 40-44; 40 percent among those over 45. The rate among the almost 200 prisoners paroled or pardoned because of POPS' efforts is zero.

This is partly because POPS is meticulous in selecting candidates for release. POPS never challenges an inmate's conviction, and to be eligible for POPS' help, inmates must acknowledge their guilt. Although predicting recidivism is not an exact science, extensive interviewing can establish each inmate's ranking on a recidivism risk scale.

States can also reap sizable savings by designating some prisoners for incarceration in minimum-security facilities for geriatrics--essentially, nursing homes--or assigning them to live at large but wearing electronic bracelets for monitoring. Turley, who is now at The George Washington University Law School, says that prisons are designed for vigorous and violent young predators, but now increasingly valuable cells are being occupied by decreasingly dangerous individuals. These elderly are taxing the capacity of prison medical systems which are already buckling under the burden of the AIDS epidemic.

Although prison medical care often is not optimum, courts have held that denial of adequate care violates the Eighth Amendment prohibition of cruel and unusual punishments. Which is how America may come to regard the tax burden of its correctional system (in what sense are older prisoners ""corrected''?) unless it moves in the direction POPS is pointing.