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Romney adviser Ron Kaufman agrees, calling McCain crossover voters "a concern" in an interview with NEWSWEEK. Kaufman said the Romney team is banking on good turnout in the Detroit area, where their support is strongest. But if turnout shoots up in the more socially conservative cities of Battle Creek, Traverse City and Kalamazoo—places that look favorably on McCain and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, he said, Romney will fare less well. "This is where the recession hits the hardest," Kaufman said during an interview at a downtown Detroit hotel. Romney has been highlighting his experience as a business leader and the problems that need fixing here, especially in Motor City. He has taken to calling Michigan a "one-state recession" on the stump; the state has the country's highest unemployment rate. But Kaufman said Romney's message—"not only do I understand [the economy] better than the other guys, I've lived it and I've fixed it"—should appeal to a national audience, too. "People more and more are realizing the next president better be able to deal with economic downturn and recession or the country is in trouble, not just Michigan," Kaufman said.

Kaufman says the poll numbers have been trending in Romney's favor over the last few days—and the campaign remains confident. Romney's industry-specific message here seems to be resonating; he argues that if he's elected president he will quintuple to $20 billion the amount of federal money dedicated to research into energy and fuel technology and call a meeting of labor leaders, auto executives, and Congress during his first 100 days in office. Michiganders seem to be overlooking Romney's record in Massachusetts, which included a proposed excise tax that critics said might have led to higher taxes on SUVs, a no-no in car-crazy Michigan, as well as tougher standards for auto emissions that were opposed by car manufacturers. (His aides say he was obligated to comply with a state law.)

On Monday, Romney attended the North American International Auto Show, touring displays featuring only American-made cars and showing a disproportionate interest in minivans. Afterward, at a press conference, Romney was asked how he would invest in the auto industry to improve Michigan's prospects. "It's been a long time since I've been in the investment business … and I wouldn't begin to try and tell an investor in the private world where to make investments in the auto industry," Romney said. He went on to say that the federal government should act as "a partner" with Detroit but not "write a check for a bailout." For a candidate who is running here on his father's legacy as a car-company president and his own as a visionary genius able to fix broken businesses, the answer fell flat. Romney may yet pull it out in this must-win state, but he's going to need to hit the gas.

© 2008

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