Home Run

Mitchell said it is important to keep in mind that Romney's win here does not necessarily mean he will be able to translate his success to other states. "He's put enormous resources into this state," Mitchell said. "He's outspent, clearly, everybody … It is his home state." Romney reportedly spent $2 million on television and radio ads here in the first nine days of January alone while his closest rivals, McCain and Huckabee, spent $359,000 and $39,000 respectively.

Barnstorming through Michigan nonstop after a string of humbling setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney embraced the state (where he grew up and met his wife, Ann) as if his life depended on it. Romney hasn't tried to downplay his advantage in the state, telling reporters traveling on his chartered plane last night that Michigan is home. "This is the place, it just feels right," he said. "You go back, all the stores seem right, people know the things you know." He even waxed nostalgic about how much he likes the trees here—even if they're not as tall as they are elsewhere. "Where you're born and raised somehow it just seems like that's the way it's supposed to be," he said. Romney also spoke of how touched he was to meet a man here Monday who had saved campaign memorabilia from his father's political battles in the '60s. (The supporter gave Romney a George Romney comb that said "Keep it straight in '68.") Romney, whose father was a popular three-term governor here in the 1960s, benefited from his family ties by wooing a large number of over-60 voters with fond memories of George Romney,  pollsters here said.

Vincent Hutchings, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan, said that while Romney benefited from the relatively low turnout of independents and Democrats, his strategy of highlighting his ability to bring back jobs and improve the economy here was a winning one, especially in light of McCain's blunt words. Romney's advertising focused heavily on the Michigan economy, Hutchings said, but McCain and Huckabee used the "generic message they've had in other states." It may have made the difference, Hutchings said. "I think [McCain] doesn't think the candidates should pander to the electorate by telling them what they want to hear so he is simply highlighting his foreign-policy experience," Hutchings said. "It was a risky decision." He called McCain's message that jobs won't be coming back "a little defeatist."

Hutchings said that like Romney, McCain needed a win here. "John McCain has won one state—a state in which a plurality of registered voters are independents, not Republicans," he said, referring to New Hampshire. "There's a lot at stake here for Romney, but there's a lot at stake for McCain as well." What's next for Romney as he approaches less friendly terrain is anybody's guess. But Ron Kaufman, a senior adviser to the campaign, said that Romney's emphasis on the economy and jobs will continue to resonate in other states. "The message is right in his wheelhouse," he said of Romney's focus on the economy.      

And even as Kaufman sought to portray Romney's victory here as not being about his ties to Michigan or the state's particular economic plight but Romney's own evolution, Kaufman was blunter about the grueling road ahead. "It's like the Bataan Death March," he said of the path to the Republican nomination. Whether Romney will survive the war, and not just a battle fought on friendly terrain, is the question on everyone's mind.

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