Rudy Country?

FLORIDA IS RUDY COUNTRY, proclaims the banner on Rudy Giuliani's Sunshine State tour bus. But the latest poll shows that voters here may not agree.

Released Jan. 14, the Quinnipiac University Poll puts the former New York City mayor at 20 percent, two percentage points behind New Hampshire winner John McCain, who has not stepped foot in Florida since his Granite State victory. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney--also absent from the Florida circuit--trail Giuliani with 19 percent each. But with a 4.8 percent margin of error, the poll shows that the GOP race is anyone's to grab.

It wasn't always like this. In late November, a CNN/Opinion Research poll placed Giuliani well ahead of the pack in Florida with 38 percent of likely voters pledging support. But in the few weeks since then, Huckabee, McCain and Romney have won primaries or caucuses in which Giuliani has had dismal showings. Now these candidates are looking like serious threats to Giuliani's Florida strategy. His aides have said all along that they were not putting much energy into the early contests and focusing their energies on Florida, which votes on Jan. 29.

Unlike the rest of the GOP field, who have been busy campaigning in Nevada and South Carolina, Giuliani is the only candidate actually here. "For us, having time down here has been great," says Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign director. "There's obviously been a lot of excitement with Rudy being the only one here and he has generated a lot of good press coverage as a result."

Giuliani is working furiously to make use of his limited one-on-one time before the pack descends after Saturday's races in Nevada and South Carolina. The campaign has shelled out $3 million for Florida ad spots--a good chunk of which has gone to Spanish-language TV and radio commercials--and the Rudy campaign is canvassing the entire state, logging hundreds of miles a day both on the ground and in the air.

Unlike New Hampshire and Iowa, Florida is far too big to engage in retail politics, a weak point for Giuliani. His style is less folksy, less intimate, more glitz and glam. He lends himself perfectly to the kind of large rallies and conference appearances that Floridians expect.

"Campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, there is such a routine," says Giuliani's strategy director Brent Seaborn. "They expect the tradition of access to the candidate." But in Florida, Seaborn adds, campaign stops are larger: "Rudy feeds off the energy of the big crowds down here. There's just a real enthusiasm that is tangible."

The energy at Giuliani's Florida events is completely different from that in New Hampshire, the last state in which he really campaigned. Here, people laugh at his jokes. They applaud when he talks tough on terror. They bring dog-eared copies of his book, "Leadership," for him to sign. They ask his advice on Manhattan restaurants and Broadway plays ("'Wicked' is wonderful," he advises). Even Giuliani's staff--who were markedly dour in the Granite State--are giddy and beaming down here, and not just because it's 30 degrees warmer.