CHARLESTON, S.C.--Whew. Finally. The wait is over. It's been four whole days since Michigan, our last presidential primary. For the Dems, it's been eleven. As a wise man once said, looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
Today the Democrats and Republicans of Nevada caucus and Republicans of South Carolina, um, primary. There's not much action on the trail, so I'll be posting a series of short items looking at "what's next" for each of the major contenders. The possibilities, as always, are fascinating. In 2004, only 9,000 Nevadans participated in the caucuses. Now, however, it's an official "early state"--meaning many, many more are expected to show up. Which is great and all, but it makes it impossible for pollsters to develop an accurate turnout model--and, consequently, deliver accurate poll numbers. Some surveys show Clinton ahead; some give Obama the advantage. In other words, it's a crap shoot.
On the GOP side, we've had three major contests with three different winners. But no Republican since Ronald Reagan has won the nomination without winning South Carolina. There may be no frontrunner now, but that could change tonight.
Stay tuned--and thanks so much for reading.
The schedule, via ABC’s Sneak Peak:
Nevada Republican caucuses:
Begin at 9:00 am PT (12:00 pm ET)
Straw vote begins at 9:15 - 9:45 am PT (12:15 - 12:45 pm ET)
Precincts are asked to conclude at 10:00 am PT (1:00 pm ET)
First results posted 10-10:30 am PT (1-1:30 pm ET)
Results likely known by Nevada Republican Party by 12:30 PT (3:30 ET)
Nevada Democratic caucuses:
Begin at 11:30 am PT (2:30 pm ET).
Preference groups form at 12:00 pm PT (3:00 pm ET)
Second alignment begins at 12:15 pm PT (3:15 pm ET)
Results start coming into Nevada Democratic Party at 2:00 pm PT (5:00 pm ET).
South Carolina GOP primary: polls open statewide from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm ET.