As polls close at 9:00 p.m., the networks call Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for Barack Obama. This means that John McCain, who has already lost in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will not--repeat will not--add to George W. Bush's 2004 electoral vote total of 286.
To win, the Republican has to hope that Obama either a) doesn't win any Bush states or b) wins Bush states worth less 16 electoral votes. A few examples: Nevada plus Iowa; New Mexico plus Colorado; Virginia or Indiana--and nowhere else. If Obama wins Ohio or Florida, it's over.
The Sunshine State, of course, is still too close to call. Obama currently leads 51-48 with 50 percent reporting; he's outperforming Kerry in key Bush districts 9and the key Kerry districts on the southeastern coast have yet to report). What's more, there's an early sign in the Florida exit polls that McCain may be in trouble--if not down south, then out west. After Bush won 56 percent of Florida's Hispanic vote in 2004, Obama carried the group tonight, 55-44. This bodes extremely well for the Illinois senator's chances in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.