Oscars Betting Odds 2018: What Nominees Are Favored to Win at the 90th Academy Awards?

Every year, pop culture nerds join Oscar betting pools. And every year, those same nerds cheat by furiously Googling the Oscar odds. Since that's probably why you're reading this, let's skip the chat and help you win that $20 on Sunday night. 

Here's who the experts are predicting for the top categories at the 90th Academy Awards. 

Best Picture

the_shape_of_water_sally_hawkins_courtesy_fox_searchlight Sally Hawkins and her fish lover in "The Shape of Water." Fox Searchlight Pictures


  • Call Me by Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Many are calling the 2018 Best Picture race the closest in years. There are five favorites: Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Variety and Entertainment Weekly and the statistical analytics site FiveThirtyEight predict The Shape of Water will be the winner, but Vanity Fair thinks Get Out might pull a fast one, thanks to its social-political themes and a new wave of younger, more diverse voters. 

Best Director

GettyImages-917105650 Guillermo del Toro at the 2018 Writers Guild Awards L.A. Ceremony at The Beverly Hilton Hotel, on February 11. Christopher Polk/Getty Images


  • Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
  • Jordan Peele, Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
  • Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
  • Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Most seem to agree that Guillermo del Toro will take this one, even if he doesn't win Best Picture. The visionary director has five nominations and no wins, and The Shape of Water is commonly considered an auteureal triumph, along the lines of his Pan's Labyrinth. A few outliers are betting on Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, who was nominated in this categroy once before, for 2011's Inception.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Three-Billboards-frances-mcdormand Frances McDormand in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." Fox Searchlight Pictures


  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post
  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It looks like 2018 will be Frances McDormand's year—she's the frontrunner on almost every list for her performance as the grieving mother in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. This would be McDormand's second win in this category; her first was for Fargo in 1997.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

hero_Darkest-Hour-2017 Focus Features


  • Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Much to the dismay of Timothée Chalamet fans, and even though this is Danel Day-Lewis's self-desribed acting swan song, Gary Oldman, who won the Best Actor BAFTA in his native country, is the favorite; he has never been nominated for an Oscar. 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

CUL_Tonya_01 Allison Janney in "I, Tonya." Courtesy of NEON


  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

It's a face-off between difficult mothers, one abusive (Allison Janney in I, Tonya), one just  prickly (Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird). Most seem to think Allison Janney will take home the gold—particularly after cleaning up at the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe and SAG Awards—but Metcalf might pull off a hat trick. Both have won multiple awards for their work on TV and in the theater, but this is each actor's first Oscar nomination. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

rockwell Sam Rockwell in "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." Fox Searchlight Pictures


  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sam Rockwell will likely take this one home, for his role as a racist cop who gets a redemption arc in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. He already took home equivalent awards from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actor's Guild. And Rockwell is beloved in Hollywood—but so is Willem Dafoe, and the Academy might just throw The Florida Project the bone it deserves. This is the first Oscar nomination for both actors. 

Best Original Screenplay


  • Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
  • Jordan Peele, Get Out
  • Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
  • Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
  • Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another tight race. The top contenders are Get Out and Three Billboards. While Three Billboards took home a Globe and a BAFTA for original screenplay, Get Out has launched an aggressive, last-minute campaign for the win. But given Hollwyood's traditional disdain for the horror genre, Variety and Entertainment Weekly are going with Three Billboards for the win. Vanity Fair is hanging tough with Get Out.

Best Adapted Screenplay

call-me-by-your-name Armie Hammer explores the Italian countryside in "Call Me by Your Name." Sony Pictures Classic


  • James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
  • Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
  • Scott Frank and James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
  • Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
  • Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound

No, this won't be the year Marvel wins an Oscar. This statuette belongs to 89-year-old writer James Ivory for adapting André Aciman's novel, Call Me by Your Name, so beautifully. Despite an extensive filmography and four Oscar nominations, he has never won an Oscar. If there's any justice, 2018 will be his year.

Happy betting!

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