Presidential Election Polls for November 1, 2016

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A reveler dresses as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the West Hollywood Halloween Carnaval in West Hollywood, California, October 31. David McNew/Reuters

Welcome to The Day in Polls. As we approach Election Day, we’ll be keeping you up-to-date on the latest poll numbers and where the candidates stand.

Someone who’s been criticizing the polls was excited about one of them Tuesday morning. Just before 8 a.m., Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump tweeted that he’s “gone up 12 points in two weeks” and is now leading in an ABC/Washington Post poll by one point. That poll, released on Tuesday, says 46 percent of likely voters support Trump, while 45 percent support Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Those numbers suggest enthusiasm has been waning for Clinton of late, including after the FBI director announced on Friday that the agency is reviewing emails sent by a Clinton aide, Huma Abedin.

The Real Clear Politics average of state and national polls shows Clinton still ahead by 2.2 points. Trump now has 45.3 percent of voter support, compared to 47.5 percent for Clinton. The majority of polls released on Tuesday still have Clinton leading Trump, but the Republican candidate has gained points after the news regarding Abedin's emails was announced on Friday.

What about Tuesday’s forecasts? FiveThirtyEight says Trump now has more than a 25 percent chance of winning the election, while Clinton’s chances have dropped to 74.1 percent. For Clinton, it’s a more than 10 percent dip since last Tuesday, when she had an 85 percent chance of victory. It’s also a four point decrease from Monday, when she had a 78.9 percent chance of winning.

Over at The Upshot, Clinton has an 88 percent chance of winning next Tuesday, compared to Trump’s 12 percent. While this forecast is better for Clinton than FiveThirtyEight ’s, it’s still an increase for Trump and a slight slump for Clinton. The last time each candidate had those numbers was on October 11, according to The Upshot. That was just after the second presidential debate and few days after the leak of a 2005 audio tape, when the world heard Trump tell Billy Bush that he grabs women "by the pussy."

Outlier of the day: A new Gallup survey released on Tuesday found that 32 percent of respondents think that Trump possesses the personality and leadership qualities necessary for someone to be president, compared to 51 percent for Clinton. “Voters rate Trump worse than any other presidential candidate in Gallup's records on having the personality and leadership qualities a president should have,” said Gallup. The organization first polled on this question in the 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, who both got significantly better numbers—59 percent and 57 percent, respectively—than Trump.

It’s not over ‘til it’s over, V.2: Yes, Trump might be happy about one poll that puts him one point ahead, but perhaps he should take a look at this Moody’s Analytics model. The model, which has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1980, predicts that Clinton will win next week. More specifically, the model forecasts that she’ll take 332 electoral votes, while Trump will receive 206. Swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Florida are all set for Democratic victories, according to the model, which is based on three economic factors and three political factors.

Remember: Just seven days to go until the election.