Although U.S. diplomats say a Haitian invasion appears likely, Gen. Raoul Cedras, the leader of Haiti's military junta, apparently still thinks he can make Bill Clinton back down. Diplomats in Port-au-Prince say Cedras might retire as military dictator and run for president. By the reckoning of some Haitian legislators, Cedras's term expires on Oct. 12 (the general says the date is Jan. 31). His retirement would make an invasion diplomatically awkward even though it would not fully meet U.N. demands for the military to relinquish power. The regime has already scheduled elections in November -- without saying if the presidency will be up for grabs.