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By Hugh Cameron
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Global markets could begin running short of "critical goods" within a few days, following the breakdown in peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and the now double-edged blockade on the vital Hormuz Strait.
This is according to political scientist and security scholar Robert Pape, who on Sunday warned that the supply chain impacts of the conflict could soon extend far beyond the current pressures on global energy costs.
"Everyone is still talking about oil prices. That's already outdated," Pape posted to X on Sunday. "This is no longer a price shock—It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock."
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Why It Matters
Officials from the U.S. and Iran attended peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend, following six weeks of hostilities that have left thousands dead, damaged infrastructure across the region and created supply chain disruptions that are pushing global oil and U.S. gas prices to multi-year highs. But the two sides reached no firm understanding on what they considered the key areas of contention, and the negotiations failed to reinforce either the recently announced ceasefire or the possibility of an end to the conflict.
The talks in Islamabad have been followed by what appears a reescalation, with President Donald Trump issuing new threats and warning that the U.S. military is prepared to "finish up the little that is left of Iran!"
What To Know
The catalyst for this imminent supply shock, Pape said, is the fact that the Strait of Hormuz—through which around a fifth of global oil moves—is now being constrained by Iran as well as the U.S.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Iran's military has restricted shipments through the corridor for countries supporting the U.S., while also imposing tolls on vessels that are seeking safe passage.
On Sunday, however, Trump said that the U.S. Navy would "begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) later released details of how his blockade would function, saying this would begin on Monday morning and target "vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman."
The post continued: "CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports."
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Pape said this further restriction on shipping through the Hormuz Strait will impact not just oil—"the base layer of modern production"—but also limit the global availability of its downstream products like plastics, fertilizers and other fuels.
And resulting price spikes, he said, will translate into physical shortages and "economic contraction" as material inputs dwindle.
"Once inventories run down, this stops being about expensive inputs. It becomes about missing inputs," he wrote. "Factories don't slow because costs rise. They stop because materials don't arrive."
Pape said a "smaller version" of this effect was witnessed during the 1973 oil crisis, but that "today’s shock is larger."
While Pape said that Asia would be first hit, followed by Europe, he added that the "U.S. won’t be spared," and that any "energy independence" on which nations can rely "doesn’t protect a globally integrated economy. When supply chains seize, the shock transmits via trade reductions."
Peter Klimek, director of the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII), said that the last pre-war shipments of Gulf oil have likely now arrived, meaning companies across the world reliant on continuous supply will “need to activate their buffers.”
He told Newsweek that “most direct dependencies are in Asia and Africa,” but that the U.S. and European Union will feel indirect impacts "via price transmission," and that several product categories which pass through the Strait could feel the effects about which Pape warned. These include sulfur and sulfuric acid, plastic-dependent goods like packaging and medical equipment, helium and fertilizers.
“I would be surprised if these cracks already surface in the next ten days but would rather expect these risks to materialize if the disruption extends well beyond the summer,” he added.
What People Are Saying
Robert Pape wrote on Sunday: "Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical goods. After 30 years studying economic sanctions and blockades, I don't say this lightly: Not just higher prices. Shortages. Markets are not ready for this."
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CBS News’s Face the Nation on Sunday: "This shock is large. Thirteen percent of oil, 20 percent of gas that would have flown in the world is now stuck for five weeks and counting. It is global. Everybody uses energy. Everybody feels the pinch of prices going up. And it is asymmetric. It affects different countries differently. If you are in the vicinity of the conflict, it's a big hit on you. If you are an oil importer, it is a big hit on you."
She added: "The world economy has been incredibly resilient. We have been hit by one shock and another and another. We were actually projecting a small upgrade for growth in 2026 had it not been for this war. Now we are going to have a downgrade, and the size of this downgrade will depend on these two things, duration and speed with which everything can come back to the same level of production that we had before."
What Happens Next
Pape said that monitoring transits through Hormuz would provide the best indication of how swift and significant the looming supply shortage is.
Much depends on how long the U.S. blockade lasts, how strictly it is enforced, and whether alternative shipping routes and inventories can absorb the disruption.
According to a report from the maritime intelligence firm Windward, published Sunday, Hormuz shipping remains "constrained, inconsistent, and dependent on permissions rather than open navigation."
Pape added: "By the time shortages show up in headlines, it's already too late That’s how these shocks work."
Update 4/13/26, 6:41 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comments from the supply chain expert Peter Klimek.
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