2021 NFL Mock Draft: Which Teams Hold the Top 10 Picks?
With six weeks left in the NFL season, the race for the playoffs resembles a logjam. The scenario is just as chaotic for the 18 teams currently not holding a postseason berth and vying for a top-10 pick in next year's NFL Draft.
While the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars look nailed on to secure the first two picks, the race for the other selections is wide open. Here's the state of play ahead of Week 13.
Remaining strength of schedule data via Tankathon.
New York Jets (0-11)
The Jets have been a dysfunctional, dismal mess all season and have made last season's record 7-9 look like a fine achievement. Gang Green has lost its first 11 games of the season and could well become only the third team in NFL history to go 0-16, as they have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league which includes four games against teams in playoff contention and a road game against the New England Patriots.
The Jets are firmly in the box seat in the race for Trevor Lawrence and all it remains to be seen is who will coach the Clemson quarterback, as Adam Gase's two-year reign in New Jersey will almost certainly come to an end this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)
Earmarked as one of the teams most likely to tank at the beginning of the season, the Jaguars pulled off a surprise win in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts. Jacksonville, however, has since lived up to expectations, losing the next straight 10 games. The Jaguars' remaining schedule is slightly easier than the Jets' but remains the fourth-hardest in the NFL, with road trips to Minnesota, Baltimore and Indianapolis bookending home games against the Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1)
A year after taking Joe Burrow with the first overall pick, the Bengals could again hold a top-three selection in the NFL Draft as they find themselves at 2-8-1 after a three-game losing streak.
A season that was already petering out all but ended when Burrow tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee in Week 11. While the Bengals' schedule isn't as difficult as that of some of their fellow strugglers, Cincinnati still has to face AFC North rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore as well as fellow playoff hopefuls Miami Dolphins.
A top-three pick beckons for the Bengals and with it hopefully an offensive lineman to protect Burrow whenever he returns.
Dallas Cowboys (3-8)
Dallas had far higher expectations than Cincinnati but, like the Bengals, its season imploded when it lost its star quarterback.
Finding themselves in the race for a top draft pick could be a significant silver lining for the Cowboys, but holding onto the fourth spot in the draft could prove tricky as Dallas has the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL and the dismal state of the NFC East could still allow them to squeeze into the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers (3-8)
At 3-8, the Chargers have the same record of the Cowboys but a slightly harder schedule, which includes games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders.
A year on after unearthing their franchise quarterback in the shape of Justin Herbert, the Chargers could be poised to add another top-10 pick.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1)
The Eagles have dropped to third in the NFC East following three consecutive losses and, like the Cowboys, have an eye on both the playoffs and a top-10 draft pick. Philadelphia has the third-easiest remaining schedule of all NFC East teams and face the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 16, a matchup which could well be a must-lose game in terms of draft prospects. Significantly, should they finish with the same record, the Eagles have a strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Bengals, meaning the third pick of the draft is not out of reach yet.
Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Matt Rhule's first season in Carolina has been one of steady improvements and more could be forthcoming as the Panthers look almost certain to land a top-10 pick in next year's draft—The Athletic's predictions give them an 81 percent chance.
The only team along with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have only four games left this season, Carolina has the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the league, which includes games against the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers.
Washington Football Team (4-7)
As is the case with Dallas and Philadelphia, Washington is in the unusual situation of being on the verge of a playoff spot while simultaneously holding a top-10 pick. At 4-7, the Football Team is level with the New York Giants at the top of the NFC East, but the G-Men hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping Washington earlier this season. Both teams face the Seattle Seahawks in the next six weeks, but the Football Team has an easier schedule with games against the Eagles, Panthers and San Francisco 49ers still to come.
Detroit Lions (4-7)
The Matt Patricia era came to an end last week and Detroit's sole focus between now and the end of the season should be securing as high a draft pick as possible. The schedule should help this particular quest, as the Lions face the third-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, with games against the Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all still to come, along with matchups against NFC North rivals Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.
Atlanta Falcons (4-7)
By routing the Las Vegas Raiders 43-6 on Sunday, the Falcons complicated their playoffs hopes as they improved to 4-7, a record they share with another four teams. As it stands, Atlanta holds the final top-10 pick and has a 51.6 percent chance of being among the first 10 teams making a selection in next year's draft.
The Falcons could strengthen their position thanks to their remaining schedule, which is the hardest in the NFL and includes two matchups against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints.
Non-playoff teams currently not holding a top-10 pick
- Houston Texans (4-7, pick traded to the Miami Dolphins)
- Denver Broncos (4-7)
- Chicago Bears (5-6)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-6)
- New England Patriots (5-6)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
- Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-4)
