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The odds of the 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting the Earth have increased from 1 percent to 2.3 percent, but experts say this was expected and are not worried about it.
What Is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, and is between 130 to 300 feet wide, NASA's risk list of near-Earth objects shows.
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It is currently the most dangerous space object near Earth, according to NASA, and its impact on the planet would have the same power as a nuclear bomb.
If the asteroid does hit the planet, it is predicted that the impact will happen on December 22, 2032, at around 2:00 p.m. UTC.
What Is The Latest Probability YR4 Could Hit Earth?
In an update issued on February 7, NASA said the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth had gone from around 1.2 percent (one-in-83) to 2.3 percent (one-in-43).
While the odds of an impact have almost doubled, there is still a "97.7 percent chance of a miss from this asteroid," said asteroid hunter David Rankin, who first "pre-covered" 2024 YR4 in data from the Catalina Sky Survey before its official discovery, meaning he identified the asteroid in archival images taken before its official discovery by astronomers.
He told Space.com that this rise in collision probability was expected and he believes the probability will decrease again soon, when more is known about 2024 YR4's orbit.
"We still expect that to start falling at some point. People should absolutely not worry about this yet," he said.
NASA researchers wrote on its website: "As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known. It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise**."**
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What Is A 'Near-Earth Object'?
"Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are comets and asteroids that have been nudged by the gravitational attraction of nearby planets into orbits that allow them to enter the Earth's neighborhood," NASA's Center for Near Earth Objects says.
It adds: "Because of the ongoing search efforts to find nearly all the large NEOs, objects will occasionally be found to be on very close Earth approaching trajectories. Great care must then be taken to verify any Earth collision predictions that are made. Given the extremely unlikely nature of such a collision, almost all of these predictions will turn out to be false alarms."
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