By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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New polling has suggested the Republican Party will win 301 Electoral College votes in the 2024 presidential election, far surpassing the 270 needed for the party's most likely candidate, Donald Trump, to win.
The Democratic Party's most likely candidate, President Joe Biden, is projected to win 235 Electoral College votes, according to polling by the website Race to the White House.
By aggregating different polls and analyzing them in each state, RacetotheWH said Trump leads by 5 percent or more (or no poll but safely Republican) in 26 states for a combined 250 electoral votes, while Biden is ahead by 5 percent or more (or no poll but safely Democrat) in 18 states for a combined 202 electoral votes.
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Their polling also suggested the former president would secure a further 51 electoral votes by winning in four further states where he is ahead by less than 5 percent, while Biden would collect a further 33 electoral votes in three more states by a similar margin. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.
The pollsters also forecast that in the election Trump will get 45 percent of the total vote, while Biden will garner 43.6 percent.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email for comment.
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With just under a year to go until the presidential election, a series of polls have sought to clarify the political picture, with many suggesting Biden's time in the White House may be limited. But other polls have made different predictions, and political analysts have stressed that there is still a long way to go between now and next November.
In a national poll conducted by Emerson College, Trump leads Biden by 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). The poll was conducted between December 4 and 6 and used a sample size of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Meanwhile, a November poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, showed voters are backing Trump by margins of 4 to 10 points in five out of six important election battleground states. If the poll's results are unchanged by next November's election, Trump would win more than 300 Electoral College votes.
However, a poll conducted by YouGov/The Economist said the contest would be a tie. Biden was supported by 42 percent and Trump was backed by 41 percent of respondents—a statistical tie. The survey was conducted between December 2 and 5 and used 1,291 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
As for the youth vote, a third of respondents aged 18 to 34 say they are undecided about whom they will vote for, which presents an opportunity for both Biden and Trump to capture a large voting bloc.
In interviews, Biden has remained bullish about his chances of success in the 2024 contest. "I'm not the only one who can defeat him, but I will defeat him," he told reporters last week when asked about Trump.
Likewise, Trump has spoken confidently, and this weekend predicted he would take New Jersey, a Democratic stronghold.
"Because the Biden Administration has been so bad to the Garden State...we have a very good chance of winning New Jersey," he said on Truth Social.
Update 12/11/23, 2:13 p.m. ET: This story has been updated for clarity.
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