After the Nevada debate, PredictIt, a prediction site that values candidates as stocks, showed Senator Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination by a landslide.
As of Thursday, Sanders was priced at 53 cents, with a blowout 35-cent lead over former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is valued at second with 18 cents—a reflection of the Vermont senator's runaway lead in the polls.
PredictIt has data on the value of each candidate and how it increases or decreases over a period of time. Much like the stock market, the value of each candidate rises as the market moves in their direction.
During the past seven days, Sanders' stock value has gone up from 42 cents to 53 cents, while other candidates have stagnated or fallen to less than 20 cents. In a 90-day period, Sanders has been on a steady rise since November of 2019, overtaking Joe Biden in late January 2020 and skyrocketing afterward.
PredictIt is a research project of Victoria University of Wellington, a not-for-profit university. Brandi Travis, a spokesperson, explained the accuracy of the PredictIt model for the Democratic nomination and how their traders' knowledge picks up on trends earlier than most polls.
"Our traders' knowledge, attention to every little detail, and their ability to digest even the most seemingly innocuous publicly available information about the political news they're invested in are one of the significant strengths of PredictIt," she said.
"Because of that, when you watch PredictIt's markets, you will see that our traders can pick up on trends earlier and in a more quantifiable way than other sources of information from polling to pundits. And when it comes to outcomes, our model is approximately 85 percent accurate in predicting what will happen in political events."
Many of these trends are directly linked to polling and debate performances. According to FiveThirtyEight, Sanders held a double-digit lead his competition in the Democratic primary field, polling at 26.8 percent as of Thursday. Sanders continues to cement his position as the front-runner to win the presidential nomination. position as the front-runner to win the party's presidential nomination.
Former Vice President Joe Biden trails behind Sanders at 15 percent, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg coming in at third and fourth in recent polling data at 11 percent, the data showed. Sanders went into Wednesday as the clear frontrunner and remained at the top spot despite a stronger showing by Warren and Biden during the debate.
Nevada's caucuses are set for Feb. 22, and PredictIt has Sanders continuing his streak of wins in the state. While The Associated Press has still not called a winner in Iowa, Sanders and Buttigieg ended in a near-tie. In New Hampshire, Sanders clearly defeated Buttigieg, albeit in a closer than expected race.
