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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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No game in Week 11 in college football has more on the line than Alabama's primetime road clash vs. old SEC West rival LSU on Saturday night.
These two have delivered one instant classic after another in recent years, and given the stakes this weekend, this will be a must-watch.
The first College Football Playoff rankings of this year were released earlier this week, with Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 11 and LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC) at No. 15.
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Entering Week 11, both are still alive to make the 12-team CFP, with Bama at -150 odds (DraftKings) to make the Playoff and LSU at +150 (DK) in the same market. But a win on Saturday by Brian Kelly's Tigers tonight would all but eliminate the Tide, while giving LSU's CFP hopes a massive boost.
The battle between the Tide and the Tigers kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Odds
Below are the odds for Saturday night's primetime SEC battle in three markets: the spread, moneyline and total.
Alabama vs. LSU Betting Preview, Analysis
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Bama's first season of the post-Nick Saban era has been a roller coaster.
Back in September, first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer was the toast of Tuscaloosa following a thrilling 41-34 win over Georgia that vaulted Bama to No. 1 in the nation and QB Jalen Milroe to the front of the pack in the Heisman Trophy race.
But the Tide suffered a shocking upset loss the following week to Vanderbilt. Bama lost again two weeks later on the road in Knoxville, putting its CFP hopes in serious jeopardy -- or at the very least, eliminating its margin for error the rest of the way.
Thanks to its win over Georgia, this team has a real chance to reach the expanded CFP if it wins out. That will be much easier said than done, though, starting with Saturday's do-or-die trip to Death Valley.
LSU Tigers Betting Preview
Two weeks ago, LSU rolled into College Station on a six-game winning streak and got off to an excellent start. The Tigers built a 17-7 halftime lead in that contest after smothering QB Conner Weigman and the Texas A&M offense for 30 minutes.
But the Aggies' QB switch from Weigman to speedy dual threat Marcel Reed in the third quarter caught the Tigers completely off guard, as Reed and A&M ran all over LSU down the stretch to win 38-23.
Both these teams are coming off a bye, with Bama getting a big win over Missouri back in Week 9 before its idle week.
What to Watch For in Alabama vs. LSU
In a battle of two loaded teams, the first key to this matchup will be whether LSU can slow down Jalen Milroe on the ground. Given what Reed did to the Tigers D in its last game (the A&M backup ran nine times for 62 yards and 3 TDs and went 2-for-2 passing for 70 yards in less than two full quarters of action), expect DeBoer and the Tide to test the LSU front seven with a heavy dose of QB run.
A big reason Bama is favored in this game is Milroe, who's already run for 12 TDs this year. He's struggled to get going in the running game in three of the last four weeks, though, picking up just 57 yards on 39 carries against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Tennessee after shredding Georgia for 117 yards on 16 carries.
Milroe was much more effective with his legs (11 carries for 50 yards and a TD) in his team's 34-0 win over Mizzou in Week 9. Still, he's had far less success since the Georgia game than he did from Weeks 1 through 4, when he picked up a total of 273 rushing yards and eight rushing TDs.
The other key to this game is LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who has put up great numbers this year. He struggled with both his accuracy and turnovers against Ole Miss on Oct. 12 and A&M on Oct. 26, though. Nussemeier completed 50 percent of his passes or fewer in each of those games, with two picks against the Rebels and three -- all in the second half -- against the Aggies.
Bama's defense has given up a ton of yards this year to good offenses -- both Tennessee and Vanderbilt gained 400-plus yards on the Tide, and Georgia picked up over 500 yards vs. this defense -- but it has made up for that by (usually) forcing turnovers.
The Bama defense produced a combined 14 (!) takeaways vs. Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri. The one SEC opponent this year that took care of the ball against the Bama D, Vanderbilt, moved the chains 26 times and hung 40 points on the Tide.
Alabama vs. LSU Prediction
LSU has a ton of upside as a home dog in front of arguably the best crowd in college football, especially at night. Anyone totally confident in Bama going into Tiger Stadium and winning should turn on the highlights of what happened in 2022, which was the last time the Tide traveled to Baton Rouge for a night game.
Back before Jayden Daniels was a household name, Bryce Young and Bama lost 32-31 in overtime at LSU as 13.5-point favorites in Daniels' junior season. With that in mind, we'd be shocked if this one didn't come down to the final minutes.
But given Nussmeier's struggles against the best defenses he's faced this year, we expect Alabama to create enough turnovers -- and have enough success running the football and targeting star freshman WR Ryan Williams downfield -- to win another memorable meeting between these teams.
Alabama vs. LSU Best ATS Bets
The only two LSU QBs who have beaten the Tide since 2011 were Joe Burrow (2019 in Tuscaloosa) and Daniels (2022 in Baton Rouge). With all due respect to Nussmeier, it feels safe to say that he is not quite on that level, at least not at this point in his career.
So, we're going with Bama to pull this out and cover the tight spread as road favorites in a close one that could come down to a last-second field goal.
Our best bets for this game are Bama on the spread and the over. This total is a higher number than we'd typically be comfortable with, but both these defenses have proven vulnerable against high-scoring offenses this year.
- Alabama -2.5 (-115 at bet365) 1 unit
- Over 58.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 0.75 units
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