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By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
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Alaska’s voting system cancels out President Donald Trump’s continued calls for "decoy Dan" votes to be transferred to Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, experts say.
The state’s ranked-choice election structure already accounts for those votes and is designed to limit partisan gaming, politics professors told Newsweek.
With 74 percent of the votes counted as of Friday morning, Democrat Mary Peltola held a narrow lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, 48.17 percent to 47.88 percent. Gerald L. Heikes, who ran as a Republican, had 2.27 percent of the vote, and "decoy" Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. had 1.68 percent of the vote. The latter was ultimately without party affiliation after being accused of being a fake candidate recruited by Democrats to siphon votes away from the incumbent.
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Peltola’s small advantage could either strengthen or vanish in the coming days, as more votes are expected to come in. Alaska will accept ballots from overseas voters up to November 18, when it will publish the results of the race.
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The delay in results is mainly due to the ranked-choice system, which was approved by a majority of voters in a statewide referendum in 2020 by a narrow margin of about 4,000 ballots. Through the same ballot, voters approved to switch to one open primary instead of two primaries held by each political party, with the understanding that the top four candidates, regardless of party affiliation, will then proceed to the general election.
It is this same system, which is only used in another state, Maine, that has come under fire by the Trump administration in recent weeks. In a post on Truth Social last month, Trump called the ranked-choice voting system "corrupt," saying it "shouldn’t be allowed in our country."
On Thursday, he wrote on the social media platform: "The vote totals for the Fake Dan Sullivan, plus the other ‘slug’ that the Dems put on the Ballot, should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the Election is over—He easily wins. There is no other fair solution!"
Trump had also launched a failed lawsuit aimed at preventing certification of the result if the Senator lost because of "decoy Dan's" votes.
But experts disagree with Trump because they do not think there is any problem with the ranked-choice voting system in the first place.
What Experts Say About Ranked-Choice Voting
"I think Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system largely, if not completely, obviates the problem" of the outcome of the race changing because of the presence of Sullivan Jr. or Heikes on the ballot, Professor Mark Brown, of Capital University School of Law, told Newsweek. "Sullivan Jr. will be eliminated and his votes transferred. So there is little possibility, if any, his presence and receipt of votes could change the outcome," he added.
On November 3, Alaska voters ranked the Senate candidates by preference. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, with neither Peltola nor Sullivan reaching 50 percent, the last-place candidate will be eliminated and ballots cast for that candidate are transferred to voters’ next choices. The process continues until one candidate secures a majority.
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The system alone would make the Trump administration’s lawsuit filed last month, unnecessary, the professor said. The lawsuit had sought to block certification of the race’s result if votes cast for Sullivan Jr. would have helped Sullivan win. But Brown has also called the lawsuit "meritless" in its claim.
"I do not understand any federal law to render illegal what Sullivan Jr. did. This is true even if he was assisted and financed by Democrats," Brown said. "The Ku Klux Act does not, nor does the wire fraud statute. Using either one would be a long, long stretch, and then would run into serious First Amendment problems. One has the right to associate with and seek support from whomever one wants, even if they are kept secret and from another political party."
State officials and Peltola’s campaigns also called the lawsuit baseless, and a state judge tossed it away before November 3, concluding that the federal government did not offer a solution to the voter confusion it expressed concern about.
Of course, if investigations reveal Sullivan Jr. had been paid to run, "federal campaign finance laws may come into play, such that contributions would need to be duly and timely reported," Brown said.
"Failure to do so could lead to criminal charges. But even then the failure to do so would not—and could not be used to—upset or question the election. At least the DOJ could not use campaign finance laws to do it. The Senate, as the judge of its own elections, probably could," he added.
Alaskans Stand by the Ranked-Choice Voting System
Alaska’s election system—which includes the open, all-candidate primary and ranked-choice voting system in general elections—was also on the ballot on November 3.
An attempt to repeal the much debated ranked-choice voting system is currently losing 52 percent to 48 percent, according to Will Mantell of nonpartisan organization FairVote. "If results hold, this will be the third time in six years that Alaskans have voted for open primaries and ranked-choice voting system."
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What Happens Next
It might still be days before we know the result of the Alaska Senate race.
Assuming that neither Sullivan nor Peltola wins an outright majority, "which appears to be the likeliest outcome," ranked choice tabulation will take place fifteen days after the election, Russell Luke, Assistant Professor of Political Science University of Alaska Fairbanks, told Newsweek.
"This is expected, and simply the result of the voting system and expansive nature of the State. It will be unfortunate if the rest of the country has to wait on Alaska to know the fate of the Senate, but that is a highly likely outcome given the evidence available."
Things can get more complicated if the Trump administration challenges the results of the race. Attorney General Todd Blanche said Tuesday that the Department of Justice (DOJ) could scrutinize individual ballots in Alaska if the midterm results suggest that voter confusion may have affected Sullivan’s reelection bid.
"There’s a scenario where the incumbent, Senator Sullivan, could lose, but really he didn’t lose because of ranked-choice voting. If it’s clear that voters were confused, and again, that’s why you need to preserve these ballots," he told Fox News.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Trevor Davies
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