Almost Half of Americans Say Trump Is Making Recession More Likely as President Falsely Glorifies Economic Record

President Donald Trump touted his economic record Monday during a 71-minute monologue, but nearly half of Americans aren't so sure, saying that Trump's economic policies are making a recession more likely, according to a poll from YouGov.

Recession fears across the country increased by two percentage points since September, and 27 percent of Americans now say they think the country will face a recession within the next year, according to the poll, which was released Monday. Thirty-two percent of registered voters think that the country will slide into recession in the next 12 months.

But the data also indicated a pointed partisan divide in perception. While nearly half—47 percent—of Democrats are anticipating a recession, just 13 percent of Republicans expect one. And 75 percent of Democrats said they think that the president is taking the U.S. toward a recession, while 20 percent of Republicans do.

Facing increased scrutiny as the impeachment inquiry proceeds and a string of witnesses testify before House Democrats, Trump offered lengthy statements to journalists Monday. He remarked on many of his common talking points and more recent concerns, speaking about the size of his crowds, former president Barack Obama's policy with North Korea, the whistle-blower who helped start the impeachment inquiry and the troop withdrawal from Syria.

He also spoke about the economy, offering misleading remarks about the rise in median household income and exaggerating the jobless rates for women and Asian Americans. And he asserted one of his most frequent lies: that China is paying the cost of tariffs imposed by his administration, a false claim he has regularly touted despite evidence to the contrary. According to CNN, his comments contained 20 false statements.

Trump has long touted his economic prowess to sway voters, and his claims Monday were part of a broader effort to depict himself as the person who can steer the country to economic success. At a rally in New Hampshire in August, the president said that Americans "have no choice" but to vote for him, because the stock market would collapse otherwise.

While Trump has overseen steady economic growth and the country's unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, he also hasn't achieved the three percent economic growth that he targeted, and in the second quarter of this year, GDP growth slowed to an annual rate of 2.1 percent.

As the longest economic recovery U.S. in history continues, Trump's trade war with China is also damaging global financial markets, and international bodies have pointed to trade policy disputes as it slashes projections for global growth estimates.

Despite the impact of his trade disputes, Moody's Analytics predicted last week that Trump will win re-election if the economy stays about the same.

"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," Moody's analysts wrote. Moody's has correctly predicted every election since 1980, except for the 2016 race.

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President Donald Trump answers a question with Vice President Mike Pence following a conference call with the International Space Station on October 18 in Washington, D.C. Win McNamee/Getty Images