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By Sophie Clark
Live News Reporter
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America is approaching a "demographic cliff," as the number of 18-year-olds in the country is about to decrease.
According to the recently released report "Knocking at the College Door" from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), and written about in the Hechinger Report, the result of America's falling birth rate is going to start becoming apparent this year, as fewer people will be going to, or graduating from universities, reducing the number of skilled workers entering the job market in the next four years.
Why It Matters
Having enough adults in a country with a college degree is vital for a thriving economy, and higher education sector. Without an equal-sized next generation, the U.S. can anticipate the closure of universities and therefore a decline in skilled labor. It can also anticipate a decline in labor in general, as the population shrinks.
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In addition to a dwindling domestic workforce, President-elect Trump has pledged to initiate his mass deportation agenda on his first day in office which, according to the American Immigration Council, will remove approximately 17 percent of America's total workforce, and almost half of the country's agricultural workers.
Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance Transition spokeswoman, told Newsweek: "President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families and strengthening our workforce.
"The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness. He will deliver."
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What To Know
America has been experiencing a declining birth rate since 2007. With the exception of a slight blip post-pandemic, the number of babies being born in America has continued to fall over the past 18 years.
According to reporting on "Knocking at the College Door" by the Hechinger Report, the real effect of this declining birth rate will start being felt this year, as the kids born in 2007 turn 18. And, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education report, the U.S. will have nearly a half-million fewer 18-year-olds graduating from high school by 2041.
Higher education institutions are already closing, with more than one college a week announcing its closure at the start of 2024. And while some say this opens up a better "buyers market" for high school graduates, others say this will eventually wreak havoc on U.S. development.
The U.S. is currently ranked ninth among developed nations in terms of people going on to higher education, and this slump in high schoolers may widen that gap.
That gap is significant as, according to research from the National Center for Education Statistics, each college closure results in the loss of $67 million per year from the economy.
Professor Jeff Strohl from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce spoke to Newsweek about the specific impact on, and solutions for, the lack of skilled workers in the U.S.
"We need more workers who have education and training beyond high school. We need people with a higher level of base cognitive skill sets to interact with the complex global economy," he said. "What we have going on now is less people and less people with skills that are predicted to be needed as the economy grows. This really gets to the economic decline portion."
According to Dr. Strohl, there are solutions to bridging this skills gap before it is too late. The U.S. can implement a better vocational model for high schoolers to make sure that students who would be better served working as an apprentice, rather than going to a four-year college and then dropping out, have access to that training.
The U.S. can also make it easier for people who did not finish their degree, or who did not go to college, to come back as adults. And the country needs to invest more in its community college system to make those schools viable options for many more people.
What People Are Saying
Professor Jeff Strohl told Newsweek: "With this demographic cliff, it's a real phenomenon but it's not something that we cannot handle if we are conscientious...We have to think about actionable policy to resolve the issues."
Luke Jankovic, general manager at Lightcast, told Hechinger: "We have a lot of people moving from economic producers to economic consumers, and there just aren't enough people coming up behind them to replace them."
What Happens Next
If the birth rate continues to fall, colleges, especially smaller ones, can expect serious financial pressures to close.
And, if Trump is able to carry out his mass deportation agenda, the U.S. will likely experience serious strain on their workforce as well as higher prices and less access to goods, especially in the agricultural sector.
Update 1/9/25, 9:04 a.m. ET: This story was updated to include comment from Karoline Leavitt.
Update 1/10/25 12:18 pm ET: This story was updated to include comment from Professor Jeff Strohl.
Correction 1/22/25 12:01 pm ET: This story was corrected to show that the original data set was from "Knocking at the College Door" from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).
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