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By Hugh Cameron
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Spring Break, among the busiest period for travel in the U.S., is underway.
The season typically peaks in mid-March, and Airlines for America has projected that 171 million passengers will fly between the start of this month and the end of April, averaging roughly 2.8 million travelers per day and marking a four percent increase over 2025.
But a partial government shutdown, longstanding structural stressors on American travel and now a war in the Middle East are complicating routes and raising fuel prices, together threatening to make this a difficult stretch for airlines and travelers alike.
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The American aviation industry has undergone several periods of turmoil and proven itself resilient. But Clifford Winston, Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings, said the combination of domestic political jockeying and a foreign conflict now create “serious threats” to air travel and the possibility of drawn-out disruptions for vacationers.
“The main risk is that two very different shocks are landing at once: a domestic checkpoint bottleneck from unpaid TSA staffing and a global cost shock from oil and jet-fuel volatility tied to the Iran war,” Linus Bauer, founder of the aviation consultancy BAA & Partners, told Newsweek.
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Airport Strain Already Evident
Funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) lapsed on February 13 after lawmakers failed to reach a deal on immigration enforcement reforms sought by Democrats. Funding has halted for several agencies, including the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), leaving tens of thousands of security officers working without pay and turning existing staffing shortfalls into an acute crisis for airports and travelers.
“Internationally it's well known that the U.S. has an acute shortage of Air Traffic Controllers, and TSA shortages will add to the lottery that is aviation within the USA,” Julian Bray, an aviation operations expert in the U.K., told Newsweek.
And Lauren Bis, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at DHS, told Newsweek that travelers are now facing TSA lines “of up to nearly three hours long at some major airports, causing missed flights and massive delays during peak travel.”
Bis blamed the situation on the “Democrat shutdown” of the agency, but the party has said it will not budge without what it considers much-needed immigration reform. As both sides pass the buck for the partial shutdown, aviation consultant Ernest Arvai believes “recent rhetoric suggests that neither side is moving amidst legislative slowdowns and partisanship.”
“We are in Spring Break travel season and expecting record numbers of people to take to the skies. Airlines have done their part to prepare; now Congress and the administration must act with urgency to reach a deal that reopens DHS and ends this shutdown,” the trade association Airlines For American said in a statement.
Iran War Adds New Pressure on Airlines
Beyond the domestic constraints, the unfolding war in the Middle East is now creating another crisis for the internationally bound.
“Aviation generally is set for widespread disruptions, cancelations, consolidations and longer flights due to expanding conflict zones and no fly areas,” said Bray. “Iran has signaled they have enough weapons to sustain a highly intensive war on several fronts for at least six months from existing stockpiles.”
Airline industry analyst and consultant Robert W. Mann told Newsweek Middle Eastern travel accounts for up to five percent of North American carriers’ revenue, and a report from AirInsight details how closures are now rewiring global aviation economics to the detriment of carriers and—in turn—passengers.
The media and analysis firm said airlines are now being forced to extend flight paths to avoid conflict airspace, adding up to two hours onto flight times and as much as $10,000 per flight in operating costs “once you factor in extra fuel burn, overflight fees, and wear and tear.”
And Bauer said that even for carriers which do not typically serve Middle Eastern routes, the conflict is still raising costs indirectly through “network knock-on effects,” “broader industry dislocation” and the impact of rising oil prices on their fuel outlays.
Jet fuel accounts for over a quarter of airlines’ operating costs, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), with scarcity and the economics of refining meaning these prices rise disproportionately compared to their raw input—an effect known as the “crack spread.”
Jet fuel prices have soared since the outset of the conflict, which Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg described in a note as an "existential threat" to the airline industry and one which promises to push up fare prices as they attempt to offset this surge.
The Australian airline Qantas said on Tuesday it would be increasing prices on international routes in response, with Air New Zealand, the country’s flagship carrier, also announcing a similar move, Reuters reported.
And last week, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby warned that American passengers could be in for the same treatment if the ongoing rally in fuel prices does not ease, according to CNBC, saying that these effects will “probably start quick.”
While no American carriers have yet confirmed any hikes, experts say U.S. carriers are more vulnerable to spot price fluctuations given most have abandoned “hedging” their fuel purchases*.* Airlines across the globe employ this strategy, but almost all of the largest U.S. carriers have essentially ended this practice, according to DWU Consulting, and now purchase fuel at market rates rather than locking in prices ahead of time with swaps, futures contracts, or options.
“Even as a major oil price spike remains possible, airlines have collectively decided that paying premiums to hedge fuel risk no longer makes economic sense,” the firm wrote in a report, published only days before the strikes on Iran which have now exposed airlines to conflict-era fuel costs and their passengers to rising fares.
Jet fuel was trading at $157.41 per barrel on average for the week ended March 6, up 58 percent on the previous week, according to IATA. And Bauer said that if these elevated fuel conditions “lasted only through the two-core spring-break months” this would amount to a rough estimated cost of “about $1 billion” for Delta, American, Southwest and United.
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What Travelers Should Expect
In a development that buoyed America’s struggling airline stocks, President Donald Trump on Monday told several outlets that the war could soon be over, driving Brent crude down to around $90 per barrel after nearly topping the $120 mark.
But experts told Newsweek that the “crack spread” means jet fuel price will be slow to follow suit even if this drop is sustained, and that travelers can continue expect severe disruptions over the Spring Break period.
“Higher fares, fewer true bargains, longer security lines, earlier airport arrival requirements, and more disruption sensitivity if anything goes wrong,” Bauer said, when asked what passengers should ready themselves for.
“For domestic U.S. travelers, the immediate pain point is checkpoint delay,” he added. “For long-haul travelers, the pain point is price and schedule reliability.”
“Passengers need to have a ‘Plan B’ – whether that’s re-routing elsewhere, delaying vacations or simply holiday at home and not travel overseas,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research. “For the here and now, until the conflict with Iran concludes, oil and fuel price hikes and volatility will be the key drivers behind whether demand will be impacted going forward.”
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