...
By Andrew Stanton
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Donald Trump emerged victorious after Super Tuesday, locking down his prospects of securing the Republican presidential nomination and facing President Joe Biden in a rematch of the 2020 race.
Trump handily won every nominating contest except for Vermont, a fatal blow to Nikki Haley's campaign. The former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador, has run as a more traditional conservative, seeking to appeal to independent voters and moderate Democrats to expand the GOP's appeal in November's general election. The Associated Press and Reuters reported that Haley plans to drop out of the race in remarks later on Wednesday.
She frequently said that polls showed she would be a stronger candidate than Trump against Biden, an indication of significant voter dissatisfaction with the former president, in her view. That would not bode well for Trump's chances against Biden in November.
Read More
Jack Smith to File Coded ‘Red Box’ Documents to Aileen Cannon3 min read
Celebrities Named in New Donald Trump Court Filing4 min read
Supreme Court Must Strike Against Trump to Show Balance—Legal Expert3 min read
However, the polls sent mixed messages about which Republican would have been the stronger candidate against the president. Many polling experts cautioned that it was early in the primary season, many voters were not yet engaged in the election and things will likely change before the November 5 vote.
Haley outperformed Trump in several national polls, but some swing state polls suggested that Trump had an advantage over her in the states that will determine whether Biden returns to the White House next year.
...
Here is an overview of how Trump's polling compared with Haley's at both the national level and in the six battleground states most likely to decide the election.
Newsweek reached out to Haley's and Trump's campaigns for comment via email.
National Polls
While polling may vary from state to state, recent national polls showed Haley leading Biden by a greater margin than Trump. A survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from February 25 to 28 found Haley leading Biden by 10 points, while Trump led by 4 points.
In that poll, 48 percent of respondents said they would support Trump, while 44 planned to vote for Biden, in a head-to-head race between the two candidates. In a matchup with Haley, 45 percent of likely voters said they planned to back her, while 35 percent said they would back Biden.
The poll surveyed 980 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Arizona
Arizona has emerged as one of the most competitive states in the country in recent election cycles. Growth in blue-trending Phoenix and its suburbs has propelled Democrats to victories in nearly all statewide races since 2020.
The state is expected to remain competitive in 2024 and will also have one of the most critical Senate races, which will determine which party controls Congress' upper chamber.
A poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from October 22 to November 3, 2023, found Haley leading Biden by 9 points in Arizona, while Trump led Biden by 5 points. The poll surveyed 603 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 points.
Georgia
Georgia has similarly trended toward Democrats, delivering Biden his most narrow win in 2020, thanks to population growth in Atlanta, which continues to account for a greater percentage of the overall statewide vote.
A CNN/SSRS poll conducted among 1,068 registered voters from November 30 to December 7, 2023, found Haley leading Biden by 6 points, 49-43, while Trump led by 5 points, 49-44, in a head-to-head race. The poll surveyed 1,068 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points.
Michigan
Not all swing state polls showed Haley with a polling advantage.
Michigan emerged as a key swing state in the 2016 election, with Trump flipping the state to the GOP for the first time in decades. Eight years later, the state remains closely divided between Democrats and Republicans, with Biden facing declining support among Arab American voters near Detroit, a small but potentially decisive voting bloc in the state.
A Fox News poll conducted among 1,106 registered voters from February 8 to 12 found Haley leading Biden by 1 percentage point, while Trump led by 2. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Nevada
Nevada, a longtime swing state, is expected to have close results in November, with Trump hoping to make inroads with Hispanic voters, who are a high percentage of the state. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 611 voters from October 22 to November 1, 2023, found Trump had a stronger lead than Haley.
In that poll, Trump led Biden by 11 percent, with 52 percent to the president's 41 percent. Haley, however, led by 6 percentage points, winning 44 percent to Biden's 38 percent.
Pennsylvania
Although Pennsylvania has remained a close battleground state in recent presidential races, Democrats' success in the state's 2022 gubernatorial and Senate races bolster their hopes of carrying it in November. However, polls suggest it will be close.
A Muhlenberg College poll conducted from November 20 and December 13, 2023, among 421 registered voters found Haley performing stronger than Trump. Biden beat Trump by 1 percentage point, winning 42 percent of the vote to the former president's 41 percent. Haley, however, won support from 38 percent of respondents, compared with 33 percent who said they would vote for Biden, a 5-point lead.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 points.
Wisconsin
Similarly, Haley was ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, another Midwestern swing state. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted among 908 registered voters from October 26 to November 2, 2023, found Haley leading by 14 points against Biden, winning 53 percent support. Only 39 percent of respondents planned to back the president.
In a head-to-head race against Trump, Biden held a narrow lead, 50 percent to 48 percent, according to the survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines