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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Belarus is unlikely to join forces with Russia in fighting in Ukraine any time soon, according to British defense officials.
Earlier this month, the country's president, Alexander Lukashenko, announced there would be a joint regional grouping of 70,000 Belarusian troops and up to 15,000 Russians in response to what he described as increased tensions on its western borders.
Belarus has stayed away from direct involvement in the war in Ukraine so far, although its location north of Ukraine was used as a springboard for Russia's invasion in February.
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Russia has also amassed some troops and tanks in Belarus, while Lukashenko has relied on Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay in power, after claiming victory in the 2020 election that was condemned as fraudulent.
But on Friday, the British Ministry of Defense dismissed the prospect of an imminent Russian-Belarusian force, saying that it is unlikely that Russia has actually deployed a significant number of extra troops into Belarus.
It said that because Putin's forces are committed in Ukraine, they would be unlikely to be able to generate combat-ready formations of the claimed size.
"The Belarussian military highly likely maintains minimal capability to undertake complex operations," the defense officials said.
They added that Lukashenko's announcement was probably an attempt "to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border." Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry for comment.
Analysts have suggested that Lukashenko taking a more direct role in the war in Ukraine would pose a risk for his regime.
The 70,000 troops would comprise the entire Belarusian army, about 20,000 of whom are support staff and cadets although their combat readiness is not believed to be that high.
Also, the war in Ukraine is very unpopular in Belarus, where less than a tenth of its population (nine percent) supported sending troops, according to a survey earlier this year by the Chatham House think tank.
While Lukashenko has crushed civil society and jailed opponents, sending in troops could destabilize his regime and leave him short of properly trained troops in Minsk to protect him
Dionis Cenusa, a risk analyst for the Lithuania-based Eastern Europe Studies Centre, said that the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive and the sanctions that would follow for Belarus if it joined Putin's war effort would be a strong disincentive for Lukashenko.
"As the Russian army is in poor moral and physical condition, Lukashenko will make a suicidal move by joining the Russians in attacking Ukraine from the north," he told Newsweek.
"In the event of sanctions, unlike in 2021, Russia and Putin will have no resources to support Lukashenko against further international isolation with serious impact on the regime's survivability," he added.
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