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By Mandy Taheri
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Bettors on Saturday pushed the odds of a federal government shutdown higher after a federal agent fatally shot 37-year-old Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, with two major prediction markets putting the chances at about 75 percent.
Why It Matters
Earlier this week, seven House Democrats voted in favor of a $64.4 billion bill to advance a DHS spending measure that includes about $10 billion for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The votes came during a markup of the DHS appropriations bill, with Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky casting the lone Republican vote against the funding, which passed 220-207 and will fund ICE and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through September 30.
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Some of those who supported it cited concerns of government shutdown along with other federal funded programs. Calls for the Senate to reject the measure intensified Saturday after Pretti’s death as video of the shooting spread widely online.
If the spending bills are not approved by the Senate, a partial government shutdown will go into effect on January 31.
What To Know
Democratic lawmakers urged their Senate colleagues to oppose pushing forward DHS funding after a federal agent shot Pretti in Minneapolis on Saturday, the second fatal shooting involving federal immigration officers in the city this month.
In addition to calls to impeach DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, Democrats have called upon their Senate colleagues to vote against the DHS funding bill. The bill requires 60 votes to pass, and Republicans have a 53-seat majority, meaning several Democrats would have to join them.
The measure passed the House earlier this week, with the Democrats who joined Republican ranks warning that allowing DHS funding to lapse would harm disaster relief efforts and agencies like the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), while ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) would continue operating largely unaffected.
Two of the most popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, both showed a huge spike in Saturday bets that the government will shutdown which could happen if not enough Democrats back the DHS legislation.
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Prior to the shooting, at around 8 a.m. on Saturday, Polymarket bettors suggested there was an 8 percent chance there would be a government shutdown by January 31. Following news of the shooting, the percentage spiked to 75 percent by Saturday evening. Over $3.8 million has been bet on the question.
Kalshi, which has an even higher volume of over $6.1 million bet, shows about a 76 percent change the government shuts down on the last day of January. Earlier Saturday, it was around 10 percent.
Prediction market odds are likely to keep shifting as more bettors weigh in and new developments emerge. Betting odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive.
Jake Sherman, the founder of Punchbowl News, said in an X post, "This ICE situation is a nightmare for the Senate. Cannot see a scenario in which Senate Dems can vote for this 6-bill package which includes DHS funding. Govt shuts down Friday." He noted that the "First Senate procedural vote likely not until Wednesday, giving them limited room to maneuver. House on recess. Any changes to the bill would require the House. Shutdown a real possibility at this point."
What People Are Saying
**Representative Angie Craig, a Minnesota Democrat, said in an X post: “**The Senate is set to vote on DHS funding next week and Republicans can’t pass it without Democratic support. This is the time for Senate Dems to hold the line and withhold funding from this lawless agency. Enough is enough. Shut DHS down.”
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Nevada Democrat, said in a statement Saturday: "I will not support the current Homeland Security funding bill. We have bipartisan agreement on 96% of the budget. We've already passed six funding bills. Let's pass the remaining five bipartisan bills and fund essential agencies while we continue to fight for a Department of Homeland Security that respects Americans' constitutional rights and preserves federal law enforcement's essential role to keep us safe."
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, said in an X post Saturday: “Congress has not yet renewed ICE’s budget. House voted but Senate hasn’t yet. They need 10 Dem votes in the Senate. We can still stop it.”
Senator Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, wrote in an X post: “These are not rogue agents. This is an all out assault on American life. ICE is a criminal organization that is entering homes without judicial warrants, detaining witnesses, and killing people. All at the direction of Trump. We must stop funding DHS. There is no other path forward.”
In a separate post, he wrote, “We cannot keep living like this and people can’t keep dying like this. Stop funding DHS. Impeach Kristi Noem. Hold these agents accountable.”
Representative Chuy Garcia, an Illinois Democrat, wrote in an X post: “I’m enraged by yet another killing in Minneapolis. This is state violence, carried out by Trump’s masked goons. DHS should not receive another dollar — no more funding for terror. ICE and CBP out of Minnesota now!”
Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, wrote in an X post: “1. ICE must leave Minneapolis. 2. Congress should not fund this version of ICE - that is seeking confirmation, chaos and dystopia.”
In a second post, he wrote: "The Senate should not vote to keep funding this rampage. We are not powerless. We do not need to accept this."
Senator Cory Booker, a New Jersey Democrat, wrote in an X post: "ICE operations in Minnesota must end immediately. Congress must not continue funding an out of control and unaccountable DHS and ICE that have repeatedly escalated violence and so severely broken laws and Constitutional protections. Every minute these ICE operations continue on our streets is another minute they endanger the safety of Americans and further injure our communities."
What Happens Next
The measure is now in the Senate. Lawmakers face a partial government shutdown at the end of the month, with current funding expiring on January 30.
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