Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. election against President Donald Trump, according to an average of 7 different forecast models released on Thursday.

Presidential elections in the U.S. are not decided by who gets the most votes. In order to actually win the contest, a candidate must receive a majority of votes in the Electoral College. There are a total of 538 individuals from each state who decide which candidate becomes president. Candidates need at least 270 Electoral College votes to clinch the presidency.

While those electors often follow the popular vote, that has not always been the case. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote against Trump, gaining 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. However, Trump picked up 306 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 votes, making Trump the president.

In each of Thursday's seven election forecast models, Biden was projected to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As averaged together by the website Election Dice, those models predicted that Trump has a 17.9 percent chance of winning while Biden has an 81.8 percent chance of winning. Biden's odds of victory are projected to be nearly five times greater than that of President Trump's.

Data from The Economist showed Biden holding an 8-point lead over Trump, 54 percent to 46 percent respectively. Biden was projected to get 335 votes in the Electoral College, more than the 270 votes needed to become president. Trump was projected to receive 203 electoral votes.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in the popular vote. Biden held 52.7 percentage points to President Trump's 46 percent. Based on those numbers, Biden was projected to receive 328 votes in the Electoral College while Trump was predicted to get 210 votes in the Electoral College.

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in the polls, according to election forecast models. Drew Angerer/Getty

Forecasting from The Progress Report gave Trump the smallest number of potential electoral college votes, predicting that Trump would only pick up 187 votes. Biden was projected to win 351 electoral votes.

Models show Biden carrying California which has 55 electors, the most of any state. Texas, which has 38 electors, is traditionally considered a red state. Although some believe the state could go either way, most models forecast a Trump victory in Texas.

Newsweek reached out to the Biden campaign and President Trump's re-election campaign for comment.

Other forecast models included in the average were created by Decision Desk HQ, JHK Forecasts, Plural Vote and Reed Forecasts. Methodologies varied for all polls included in the final average.

Some critics have called for the Electoral College system to be abolished. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren said in March that presidents should be elected according to the popular vote. "Every vote matters," Warren said during a town hall meeting held during her presidential campaign, "and the way we can make that happen is that we can have national voting, and that means get rid of the Electoral College."

Trump tweeted in March that campaigning for the electoral vote required candidates to "go to many States to win. With the Popular Vote, you go to just the large States—the Cities would end running the Country. Smaller States & the entire Midwest would end up losing all power—& we can't let that happen."

"I used to like the idea of the Popular Vote, but now realize the Electoral College is far better for the U.S.A.," Trump added.

Biden Nearly 5 Times More Likely than Trump to Win Election, Forecast Models Average Shows | U.S.