Biden-Trump 2024 Rematch Is Almost Certain. Polls Indicate Different Result
A 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump seems almost certain as both men have indicated their intention to run again in two years. But recent polling suggests there could be a different result.
While neither Biden nor Trump has made any official announcement about a presidential campaign, Trump has all but confirmed that he will seek another term in the Oval Office.
"Well, in my own mind, I've already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I've already made that decision," Trump told New York magazine on July 14.
He added that "my big decision will be whether I go before or after," apparently referring to the upcoming 2022 midterm elections.
The White House has repeatedly said it's Biden's intention to seek another term, and that resolve may be re-enforced if Trump makes a formal move.
Ted Kaufman, a longtime confidante of Biden, told The Washington Post in an article published on Tuesday that "he does feel like he's the best option" against Trump.
"But the primary thing is, how will he feel if he doesn't do it and if Trump gets elected president? ... 'This would be very, very bad for the country, and did I do all I could to stop this from happening?'" Kaufman said.
Though a rematch now seems more likely than not, recent polls show Biden could potentially lose in a 2024 contest against Trump.
The president won in 2020 despite unfounded claims of fraud and other irregularities levied by Trump and some of his allies. Biden won 51.3 percent of the popular vote in 2020, while Trump won 46.9 percent.
Recent polls show a much closer race.
A Trafalgar Group poll conducted from July 11 to 14 showed Trump would defeat Biden in 2024, with the former president enjoying 47.9 percent support to Biden's 42.6 percent. That poll surveyed 1,085 likely general election voters.
A YouGov poll from July 8 to 11 among 1,261 registered voters showed Biden with a slight lead of 44 percent to Trump's 43 percent. But among 1,672 adults surveyed, Trump beat Biden with 40 percent to the president's 39 percent.
A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll conducted on July 9 showed a similar result. Among the 1,078 likely voters surveyed, Trump enjoyed 43 percent support and Biden 41 percent.
Among 1,500 registered voters in the same poll, Trump had 36 percent and Biden enjoyed 33 percent support.
A Siena College/The New York Times Upshot poll from July 5 to 7 was better news for Biden as he led Trump with 44 percent to the Republican's 41 percent. That poll surveyed 849 registered voters.
The most recent polling, therefore, paints a mixed picture. But the figures seem concerning for Biden, especially considering his stubbornly low-approval rating.
Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight's analysis gave Biden an approval rating of just 38.6 percent as of Tuesday, while disapproval of the president was at 55.7 percent.
The next presidential election cycle won't really begin until the first primary contests in early 2024, though announcements may be expected in late 2023. If Trump decides to make a formal announcement this year, he could upend the process and potentially force Biden's hand.
Newsweek has asked the White House and former President Trump's office for comment.
