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Republican Representative Byron Donalds held a 4-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in a new poll of the Florida governor’s race published by The New York Times and Siena University, a top-rated pollster, less than one week until the midterm elections.
Donalds’ support stood at 48 percent, compared to Jolly’s 44 percent, in the new poll on Thursday. The poll also gave Republican Senator Ashley Moody a 6-point edge over Democrat Angie Nixon. Republicans have established a consistent polling lead in Florida, despite Democrats’ hopes of making a comeback in the former battleground that drifted rightward over the past decade.
Democrats had hoped to make Florida competitive this year as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen nationwide amid economic concerns around the cost of living. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and polling suggests Democrats are competitive in more conservative states this year but signals that Florida may be a tougher lift. The midterms will test whether they can gain back ground in the state.
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The new poll comes as Donald Trump Jr. is set to join Donalds at a rally in Hialeah, a city outside of Miami with a high Cuban American population, on Thursday, just days before voters will make their pick in the critical Florida elections. Republicans are hoping to convince their voters to head to the polls and avoid losses.
President Trump is also set to hold a rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday as he traverses the nation to build enthusiasm among the conservative base.
Newsweek reached out to each of their campaigns for comment via email.
Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly: What New Poll Shows
The poll gave Donalds a lead over Jolly, but the Democratic candidate did hold a lead among independent voters, 52 percent to 35 percent, according to the Times. Jolly won 6 percent of Republicans, compared to 4 percent of Democrats who said they would vote for Donalds.
Donalds is generally more well known in the state, with only 22 percent saying they were unsure of how they felt about or had not heard of him. Meanwhile, 34 percent said they hadn’t heard of or didn’t know how they felt about Jolly.
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Overall, 36 percent of respondents viewed Jolly positively, while 30 percent viewed him negatively, the poll found. For Donalds, 44 percent viewed him favorably and 34 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Donalds represents Florida’s 19th District in Congress, based around southwest Florida. He was first elected in 2020. Jolly is a former Republican who represented Pinellas County in Congress from 2014 to 2017.
Donalds is a close ally to Trump but has broken from him on some issues. He told Politico that Trump does not want him to be a “yes man” and that there have been times they disagree on policies.
Donalds’ campaign changed his website last month to remove several references to Trump, but told Newsweek the changes were not meant to downplay his relationship with Trump but to reflect “Byron’s focus on the issues that matter most to Floridians—affordability, insurance costs, and government transparency.”
What Earlier Polls Show
Other polling has similarly shown a close race. RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate gave Donalds a 5-point lead over Jolly as of Thursday.
A YouGov/Univision poll earlier in October gave Donalds an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 825 voters from October 2 to 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Donalds also led by 6 points in an Echelon Insights poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. It polled 515 likely voters from October 16 to 23, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon: What Polls Show
The new poll from the Times showed Moody with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Nixon’s 44 percent. RealClearPolitics’ aggregate showed the race as being less close compared to the gubernatorial contest, giving Moody an 8.4-point lead on Thursday.
The Echelon Insights poll showed Moody up 8 points, 51 percent to 43 percent, while the YouGov poll showed Moody up 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent.
Moody is the former attorney general of Florida who was appointed to the seat after Secretary of State Marco Rubio was appointed to his position in the Trump administration in 2025. She and Nixon, a Florida state representative who identifies as a Democratic socialist, are running to serve the remainder of the term.
Whoever wins will run again in 2028 for the full term.
Florida’s Republican Shift
Florida was seen as a premier battleground for much of the 2000s and 2010s and backed candidates from both parties over the years, but it has become increasingly conservative over the past decade.
Trump carried it by 13 points in 2024, up from a three-point victory in 2020 and a one-point win in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.
Republicans have also expanded their voter registration advantage, while Democrats have struggled to remain competitive in statewide races. As of September 30, there were 5,678,755 registered Republicans and 4,133,397 registered Democrats in Florida, with an additional 3,345,188 "no party affiliation" voters, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
Democrats outnumbered Republicans as recently as 2020.
Several factors contributed to the realignment. Republicans have made inroads among Latino voters, flipping traditionally Democratic areas, including Miami-Dade County, while Democrats have struggled to counter GOP messaging in the state.
Population growth also played a role. Florida added millions of new residents, many arriving from more conservative states during the COVID-19 pandemic. The GOP’s growing edge was reflected at the ballot box, culminating in Republican Governor Ron DeSantis’ landslide reelection in 2022.
Those victories allowed Republicans to enact a wave of conservative policies in the state that may also be a draw to Republican voters fleeing more progressive states like New York. Over the past several years, Florida enacted conservative‑leaning policies on education, voting, immigration and social issues.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets favor Republicans in both the gubernatorial and Senate races. As of Thursday, Donalds had a 69 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 71 percent chance on Polymarket. Meanwhile, Moody had an 89 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 91 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
What Time Are Polls Open in Florida?
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in Florida. As of Thursday, nearly 1.7 million Floridians had voted by mail, while about 2.2 million voted early, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Emma Lee-Sang
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