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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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The Celtics have taken a commanding 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals after another somewhat comfortable victory over the Dallas Mavericks in which Boston survived a late scare to win Game 2, 105-98. For the Mavericks, it's time to show up or face a daunting 0-3 deficit that no team has come back from in NBA history.
Boston, it should be noted, could be without Kristaps Porzingis due to a left leg injury (unrelated to the right calf issue that sidelined him for most of the Eastern Conference Playoffs) that his team announced on Tuesday.
Here is what we are liking from a player prop perspective -- one of several ways to bet the NBA -- in Game 3.
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Play 1: Kyrie Irving over 22.5 Points (-125) FanDuel
Irving burned us in Game 2 as we were on his over and he once again went under, but forgiveness is a part of life, so let's give him another chance. The bet on positive regression after Game 1 is the same argument for backing him in Game 3. He shot 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from deep in Game 1, only to follow that up with a 7-for-18 (0-for-3 on 3-pointers) performance in Game 2. For those of you counting at home, that now makes him 0-for-8 from deep in this series while shooting 35.5% overall.
While the Celtics do have two great defensive guards in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, Irving is also missing a ton of open looks that you expect him to make on a consistent basis. Three of his 3-point attempts have been considered wide-open by NBA.com standards (six-plus feet of space), and another four have been considered open (4-6 feet of space). For the series, that makes him 0-for-7 on 3-pointers that are either open or wide-open, per NBA.com. In the regular season, Irving shot 48.7% on wide-open 3-pointers and 37% on open ones.
From 2-point range, Irving has attempted another 11 midrange shots that were considered open, and he has only made four of them (36.4%). In the regular season, Irving shot 57.3% on open midrange shots. So, the thought here is that Irving's struggles through two games of the NBA Finals have less to do with the Celtics' stifling defense and more to do with him missing open looks that he normally makes. If those shooting splits normalize, then it is easy to do the math to see Irving getting us to the low total of 23 points he would need to hit this over.
Play 2: Jaylen Brown over 5.5 1st Quarter Points (+105) DraftKings
Now that Porzingis could be out for this game, it is time to pivot to Jaylen Brown's first quarter point prop, which has been a gold mine in games that Porzingis has missed. In 10 playoff games without Porzingis, Jaylen Brown has scored six or more points in the first quarter six times, cashing it in six of eight before missing it in the last two games against the Pacers.
In those 10 games, Brown has averaged seven points in the first quarter. His minutes have admittedly been somewhat spotty in the first quarter, but in the Finals, he has played 10 and 12 minutes in the first quarters of Game 1 and Game 2, respectively. It is unclear how the Celtics' rotation is going to play out with Porzingis either unavailable or hobbled, but as long as Brown plays 10-plus minutes here, we should be good to go.
In the regular season, Brown played in 19 games without Porzingis and hit the over in 12 of those games, with an average of 8.1 points per game in the first quarter. So, if you include all 29 games without Porzingis this season, Brown has cashed the over 5.5 first quarter points prop 62% of the time while averaging 7.7 points. The guess here is that the Mavericks play Brown slightly differently than they've played him so far this series, which could lead to more points from him.
Through two games, Brown has 20 potential assists, which is significantly higher than his average of six potential assists throughout the entire playoffs. Brown has been driving more than usual, but the Mavericks have been aggressive (and haphazard, to be honest) sending help, leading to a combined 60 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts from the Celtics in Games 1 and 2. That is a big reason why Brown alone had 12 potential assists in Game 2, with seven actual assists.
Brown is not known to be a high-level passer, so if the Mavericks can clean up their switch-heavy and help schemes on defense, that would lean to less-frequent passing from Brown and a bigger emphasis on scoring.
Play 3: Derrick Jones Jr 2+ made 3-pointers (+200) FanDuel
It's time for the play that will require the biggest leap of faith: backing Derrick Jones Jr. to make two 3-pointers. As a whole, the Mavericks' 3-point shooting has been abysmal this series. They have made a combined 13 3-pointers in the two games, eight of which have been made by Luka Doncic. Non-Luka Mavericks are shooting a combined 5-for-32 from beyond the arc.
Jones is a streaky shooter, and after two games in which he's made one combined 3-pointer, now is the time to buy the dip and back him from beyond the arc. Streaky shooting has essentially defined his playoff run to this point, especially in the Thunder series. At one point in that series, he made a combined seven 3-pointers in a two-game stretch in Games 5 and 6. Naturally, he slowed down to begin the Timberwolves series, not making a single 3-pointer in Games 1-2, then made a combined five in Games 3-4. He has not made multiple treys in the same game since Game 4 against the Timberwolves.
Part of the Celtics' defensive game plan is to shut down all corner 3s, but they are also essentially not bothering to guard Jones when he is anywhere else on the court. All five of his 3-point attempts in this series have been wide-open, and he is only shooting 20% on those five attempts (1-for-5). So, all we are doing here is buying the dip and trusting that the Celtics will once again leave Jones open from deep, and that Jones will break out of his slump and make two or more of these looks to cash this for us.
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