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By Ryan Chan
China News Reporter
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China—which possesses the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal—is using its rapid nuclear development to deter adversaries, namely the United States and its Asian allies, and gain a strategic advantage without resorting to war, a think tank reported on Wednesday.
"China has consistently adhered to a nuclear strategy of self-defense, always maintaining its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and does not engage in an arms race," China's Embassy in Washington, D.C., said in a statement to Newsweek.
The Pentagon told Newsweek that it had nothing to offer for comment.
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Why It Matters
Estimated figures from the U.S. Defense Department and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show that China has built a nuclear stockpile of at least 600 warheads—an increase of 100 in one year. While the East Asian power is set to possess more than 1,000 warheads by 2030, this would still place Beijing far behind Moscow and Washington.
As part of China's ongoing military modernization, President Xi Jinping has ordered the acceleration of strategic deterrence force development. Beijing has also said it was "forced" to join the exclusive nuclear club—which currently includes nine nations—in response to nuclear threats, to end nuclear monopoly and to prevent a nuclear war.
What To Know
In a report titled "Implications of Chinese Nuclear Weapons Modernization for the United States and Regional Allies," the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., said China's rapid nuclear modernization seeks to create political and psychological effects that lead to "enormously important strategic and military effects" rather than to win a nuclear exchange.
The authors—John Lee, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, and Lavina Lee, a senior lecturer in the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University in Australia—argued that these effects were fully aligned with what they described as China's "evolving notions" of strategic stability, strategic deterrence and strategic capabilities.
According to the report, Beijing views strategic stability as a condition that supports the advancement of China's geopolitical and development objectives. Strategic deterrence, meanwhile, involves not only dissuading an adversary from pursuing specific actions or policies but also constraining that adversary while China advances its own objectives.
"The modernizing nuclear arsenal exists to enable China to attack the adversary's plans (strategies) and allies, bringing China one step closer to subduing the enemy and winning without fighting," the authors cited the Philippines, Japan and South Korea as examples.
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In the case of Manila, China employed "implied nuclear threats" to dissuade the Philippines from joining or militarily integrating into Washington-led efforts against Beijing in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. China has threatened to take self-governed Taiwan by force.
Meanwhile, China's "nuclear psychological warfare" will produce strategic effects for Japan—which is protected by the U.S.'s extended deterrence, also known as the nuclear umbrella—that "exacerbate the sense of insecurity for Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance," the report said.
For South Korea, which focuses primarily on the nuclear threat from North Korea, China's nuclear modernization is not yet seen as a direct problem or serious challenge. However, Beijing could employ "implied nuclear threats" if Seoul agreed to host American nukes.
What People Are Saying
The Hudson Institute's report concluded: "Stated differently, as China speeds ahead with nuclear modernization, the U.S. and its allies need to persuade Beijing that doing so only accelerates U.S. and allied conventional rearmament, which makes a successful Chinese military victory over Taiwan even less likely and more costly."
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek: "China abides by the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances and at any time, and commits unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones. China is the only nuclear-weapon state to adopt such a policy. China will continue to be firmly committed to safeguarding its legitimate security interests and upholding world peace and stability."
What Happens Next
Both China and the U.S.—as well as other major nuclear powers—are likely to continue modernizing their nuclear arsenals.
Update 08/01/25, 10:54 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from the Pentagon.
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