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By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
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Weapons and components linked to China have been identified by observers in the hands of both sides of one of the most explosive episodes of the Middle East crisis.
Images circulating online in September purported to show the remains of a China-produced Dongfeng-15A (DF-15A) short-range ballistic missile in Yemen.
The weapon was said to have been fired by Saudi Arabia against the neighboring country's Iran-backed Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthi movement, which has been engaged in a deepening conflict with the Kingdom and its local Yemeni allies on the sidelines of the U.S. war with Iran.
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Meanwhile, a separate report published last month by the Conflict Armament Research (CAR) monitor identified attempts by Ansar Allah to acquire Chinese components as well.
The findings were based on the reported contents of four containers seized in July by Yemen's internationally recognized government, purportedly indicating an attempt by the group to develop their own version of Iran's Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile.
While Chinese officials vehemently deny any effort to stoke the flames of conflict ravaging the Middle East, analysts say the developments shine a spotlight on some of the otherwise murkier reaches of Beijing's global defense influence and a major setback for international arms control efforts.
"I am certain that both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are using Chinese technology in their missile programs, although in the case of the Houthis it is unclear whether that technology is provided solely through Iran or whether there is some direct Chinese assistance," Jeffrey Lewis, lecturer at Stanford University 's Center for International Security and Cooperation and research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), told Newsweek.
He said that "the major implication of Chinese assistance is that the global regime to restrict the spread of missiles has comprehensively failed, adding that "these technologies are widely available to nation-states and to actors aspiring to be nation-states."
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The Riyadh-Beijing Missile Pipeline
Neither Riyadh nor Beijing has confirmed Saudi Arabia's possession or use of the DF-15A, which may mark its debut on the battlefield.
Saudi Arabia has long maintained a shroud of secrecy surrounding its missile program. But the longtime U.S. partner's dealings with Chinese missiles are believed to date back at least to 1987, when Saudi Arabia was later assessed by the CIA to have acquired a number of DF-3A intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward the end of the Iran-Iraq War.
In 2014, Newsweek reported that Saudi Arabia had acquired more modern DF-21 intermediate-range ballistic missiles from China as part of a 2007 agreement greenlit by the CIA. Both the DF-3 and DF-21 are capable of hosting nuclear warheads, though there are no indications of Riyadh ever seeking to acquire such weapons of mass destruction.
Also in 2014, Saudi Arabia put its DF-3 fleet on display for the first time during a military parade. The exhibition confirmed decades of speculation on Riyadh's acquisition of Chinese missiles, while reports of yet another deal involving the transfer of technology allowing the Kingdom to bolster its domestic missile production emerged in 2021, drawing backlash from some voices in Washington.
FPRI researchers identified last month what appeared to be an expansion of infrastructure at Saudi Arabia's Al-Duwadimi motor plant, indicating an acceleration of efforts to produce solid-fuel missiles that can be stored longer and launched more quickly than liquid-fuel alternatives.
Saudi Arabia has also purchased substantial amounts of weapons from the U.S., including Patriot and THAAD surface-to-air missile systems, AIM air-to-air missiles and shorter-range platforms geared toward hitting land targets. But Lewis explained that Washington has demonstrated limits when it comes to other kinds of arms.
"For Saudi Arabia, the fundamental constraint is that, unlike in most other areas of military technology, the United States does not supply long-range surface-to-surface missiles, even to its allies," he said, noting only rare exceptions such as the sale of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Australia and Japan.
"China is the preferred supplier for Saudi Arabia and Turkey because, in an important sense, it is the only supplier other than North Korea," Lewis added.
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Diversifying the Portfolio
Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher for armament and disarmament at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, also observed that "Saudi Arabia’s interest in Chinese arms is partly related to the USA and European states having been less forthcoming in supplying weapons such as ballistic missiles, and advanced long-range drones and cruise missiles to Saudi Arabia."
At the same time, Wezeman told Newsweek that "some of the arms deals that Saudi Arabia has agreed with China over the past few decades may also be explained as Saudi Arabia testing what China has on offer for lower prices and as assessing how it can further diversify its arms suppliers."
The trend of China-Saudi defense cooperation long predates the U.S.-Iran war. Yet Saudi analysts have accelerated calls for a diversification of military supply chains and even nuclear energy endeavors amid doubts toward Washington's security commitments.
"Riyadh is now aware of the material limits of U.S.’ military assistance in case of prolonged conflict, and it’s also experiencing a geographical encirclement of threats (from Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, and pro-Iran Iraqi militias), so it’s more open than before to diversified, even redundant acquisitions," Eleonora Ardemagni, senior associate research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, told Newsweek.
"Its main goal is to become a weapons producer for its own defense, so it’s interested in acquiring know-how and to develop capabilities," Ardemagni said, adding that Riyadh would also walk a fine line in avoiding triggering too harsh a blowback from Washington.
But Saudi Arabia is not alone in this quest. Ansar Allah, she argued, is also in the market as it seeks "to capitalize on the tightened alliance with Iran," while "avoiding the trap of an exclusive relationship which may erode their final say regarding strategic decisions."
Ardemagni described the result as a kind of "regional arms race," in which Saudi Arabia was competing with Iran and its allies for long-range strike capabilities, while Ansar Allah sought to further develop its own "network of resistance."
As is often the case with large-scale, globalized conflicts such as the Middle East crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war, the arms of major exporters have a way of emerging absent of direct transactions.
Experts and Chinese military bloggers had earlier observed that Ansar Allah used variants of China's C-802 anti-ship cruise missile to target commercial and military vessels at sea, including in a 2016 attack on the USS Mason Arleigh Burke-class guide-missile destroyer.
Wezeman saw Tehran as the key node in the connection.
"The Houthi’s use anti-ship missiles and ballistic missiles sourced from Iran," he said. "Iran produces such missiles, at least partly with technology sourced from China."
Should Ansar Allah press forward with efforts to develop its own models, he argued that the Islamic Republic would remain a crucial source for electronics and other necessary parts, including those originating in China.
"Many of such components it will be able to procure from commercial sources in China," Wezeman said. "It is likely that the Houthis get their components through those Iranian procurement networks."
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China's Balancing Act
The growing footprint of Chinese military technology in the region's conflict has the potential to put further pressure on Beijing's balancing act between Iran, Saudi Arabia and other actors.
Hongda Fan, director of the China–Middle East Center at Shaoxing University and visiting scholar at the National University of Singapore, sought to distinguish between unverified reports and the "normal military and defense cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries."
"Such cooperation can help meet the legitimate defense needs of regional countries while creating opportunities for China's defense industry," Fan told Newsweek. "The performance of Chinese military equipment may also attract greater international interest.
"However, increased arms sales do not necessarily translate into greater Chinese political influence in the Middle East," Fan said. "China maintains friendly relations with countries across the region, and regional stability is essential to its long-term interests."
Despite China's long-running defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Beijing maintains close ties to Tehran as well. The two nations reached a major strategic partnership agreement in 2021, and China is by far the top importer of Iranian oil.
China was among four nations, alongside Iraq, India and Qatar, that Iran would grant permission to use the Strait of Hormuz despite the Islamic Republic's blockade, senior Iranian lawmaker Amir Hayat-Moghaddam recently told local media. Ansar Allah appears to have offered a similar pass for Beijing to use strategic waterways.
Shipping data reviewed by Newsweek in July appeared to show the passage of at least two large Chinese flagged crude oil carriers through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint just hours after the group targeted two Saudi ships in the neighboring Red Sea.
When it comes to Ansar Allah's interest in Beijing's arsenal, however, Fan argued that "Chinese officials have explicitly rejected allegations that the Houthis have used Chinese-origin components to manufacture missiles."
Chinese officials, including Chinese Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng, during an interview with Newsweek in May, have also rejected reports indicating they were supplying Iran with weapons throughout the ongoing conflict.
In a statement shared with Newsweek, Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Chang stated that "China has consistently maintained a prudent and responsible approach toward the export of military products." And, "in accordance with our own national export control laws and regulations, as well as its international obligations, China exercises strict oversight over dual-use items," he stated.
"At present, conflicts in the Middle East are protracted and threatening to spill over; dialogue and negotiation represent the only viable path to a resolution," Liu said. "China stands ready to strengthen communication and dialogue with countries in the region. The immediate priority is to prevent the reignition of conflict in the Middle East, which would only bring further suffering to the people of the region."
"Guided by the initiatives and proposals put forward by President Xi Jinping to promote peace and security in the Middle East, and upholding an objective and impartial stance, China will continue to work alongside all relevant parties to help restore peace to the region," he added.
Newsweek has reached out to representatives of Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah as well for comment.
Fan, for his part, acknowledged that "the use of Chinese-made weapons by countries involved in conflicts may create diplomatic challenges for Beijing." He also emphasized that China would be unlikely to throw its weight behind any individual actor as it strives for a de-escalation that could prove far more lucrative than weapons deals.
"I believe China's interests in the Middle East extend far beyond arms sales," Fan said. "Regional stability, economic development and cooperation with countries across the region are much more important to Beijing."
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.
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