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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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It's almost impossible to win in the NFL without above-average quarterback play, but the Cleveland Browns did exactly that in 2023.
After winning 11 games last year with Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson both unavailable for most of the season, Cleveland is expected to be a playoff team in 2024.
The Browns are seeking just their second postseason victory since 1994 and their first since 2020.
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In fact, Cleveland has been to the playoffs just four times in the last 30 years (1994, 2002, 2020 and 2023), with two wins: Wild Card-round victories in 1994 and 2020.
Cleveland Browns 2024 Futures Odds
Oddsmakers are down on the Browns despite their impressive response to a ton of adversity on offense a year ago.
The skepticism likely has to do with doubts about Watson. He has, after all, missed more games than he played (for a variety of reasons) in each of the last three seasons. Watson's 12 total starts from 2021-23 make him a question mark, but one who's still only 28 years old -- and reportedly healthy entering this season.
Even if Watson's days as a game-changer at his position are history, all he would have to do is replicate what Joe Flacco gave this team down the stretch in 2023 to make this team much better at QB than it was for most of last season.
He's not the only high-level player who missed a ton of snaps for this offense a year ago, though. Starting left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. missed the last nine games of the season, and two-time All-Pro RT Jack Conklin played only one game after a knee injury in Cleveland's season opener sent him to IR for the rest of the year.
If Watson, Chubb, Conklin and Wills Jr. can return to form, an offense that somehow stayed afloat without them (Cleveland finished 10th in the league in scoring last year) could take a massive step forward this season.
The AFC North is brutal, but Cleveland has serious value in that market, especially at as long as 6-to-1 (DraftKings).
Cleveland Browns 2024 Betting Outlook
Offense has high ceiling after injuries took toll in 2023
With injuries limiting Deshaun Watson to just five full games and a revolving door at QB from Weeks 4-12 -- Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and PJ Walker all took turns as the Browns' starter during that stretch -- Cleveland's offense endured a roller-coaster ride in 2023. By season's end, five different players had started at least one game under center for the Browns.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson started three games last year as a rookie fifth-rounder, and journeyman PJ Walker led the offense for essentially three games. Walker had two starts, and played most of a third game -- Cleveland's Week 7 win over Indianapolis -- after taking over for the injured Watson for the final three quarters.
Somehow, the lack of continuity at quarterback didn't prevent the Browns from enjoying a winning season.
Five impressive performances from emergency December free-agent signing Joe Flacco, who went 4-1 as the starter from Weeks 13-17, got Cleveland into the playoffs. The Browns were playing so well in December and January that they were actually road favorites against Houston in the Wild Card round.
While that game got away from Cleveland, that blowout loss didn't make their strong finish to the regular season any less impressive, especially given the circumstances.
Though it's certainly possible that one or more of Chubb, Watson, Wills Jr. or Conklin will miss time again in 2024, it's safe to assume Cleveland will get far more than a total of 17 starts combined from those four.
At WR/TE, Cleveland boasts an underrated group led by Amari Cooper, who is coming off arguably the best season of his career, and athletic TE David Njoku, a 2023 Pro Bowler who was outstanding down the stretch a year ago.
Myles Garrett, Cleveland D should remain among league's best
Reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett leads an imposing front four that also features proven vets in DT Dalvin Tomlinson and DE Za'Darius Smith. PFF ranks the Garrett-led Browns DL No. 5 in the NFL.
This unit also boasts young stars at linebacker (24-year-old Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah made the Pro Bowl in 2023, his third season in the league) and corner (27-year-old Denzel Ward has been to three Pro Bowls in six seasons).
In 2023, the Browns were outstanding defensively by (almost) every measure.
While Cleveland was easily No. 1 in yards allowed per game at 270 -- Kansas City, the No. 2 team in yards allowed, gave up 290 yards per game -- it was just 13th in points allowed.
By DVOA, which takes into account the quality of the opposition, Cleveland was No. 2 in the league, behind only Baltimore, which posted one of the best defensive seasons in the history of the advanced metric.
After also finishing 2023 No. 1 in passing yards allowed per game (165) and tied-fifth in turnovers forced (28), the Cleveland defense should be even better in 2024 in its second season under veteran coordinator Jim Schwartz.
Cleveland Browns 2024 Best Bets
- Browns to make playoffs (+145) DraftKings, bet365
- Browns alternate win total over 9.5 (+140) bet365
- Browns to win AFC North (+600) DraftKings*
Two of the best bets available for any team entering the 2024 campaign are "Browns to make playoffs" and "Browns alternate win total over 9.5."
There are few holes on this roster, and the defense is good enough that even if the quarterback situation is less than ideal, again, a 10-win season should be well within reach.
The ceiling is sky-high if Watson even vaguely resembles the star he was in Houston from 2018-20, but this team could be very good even if he's merely average. Watson was underwhelming in his six starts a year ago, but still led this team to a 5-1 record in those games, and the Browns went 3-3 (!) with Walker/DTR at the helm and 4-1 with Flacco.
With Jameis Winston in the backup QB role this year, expect a much higher floor, if nothing else, from the Cleveland offense.
It all adds up to make this one of the most enticing teams in the league on the futures market, particularly at the prices available as of August 15.
*The AFC North is brutal, but 6-to-1 odds are hard to pass up given how well-rounded this roster is. Also worth noting: Cleveland reached 11 wins last year despite benching its starters for the Week 18 season finale after clinching the 5-seed early.
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