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By Anna Commander
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Establishment Republicans in Washington, D.C., have "a lot to be worried about" if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, according to a CNN data analyst.
Harry Enten said on Thursday that latest polling suggests a close hypothetical race between Paxton and Democratic candidates in a general election despite Texas having not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.
Why It Matters
The 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has become a national proxy battle over the GOP’s direction, and the result could signal the direction of the party in the state.
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What To Know
Trump-aligned state attorney general Paxton is set to go head-to-head in the Republican primary against John Cornyn, a Bush-era Republican, and Wesley Hunt, a Trump-supporting two-term congressman.
Speaking on CNN’s The Source, Enten noted recent a Senate Republican primary poll by the University of Texas, showing Paxton leading Cornyn by 2 points and Hunt by 10. The poll surveyed 350 registered voters from February 2 to 16, and has a margin of error of +/-5.2 points.
"This of course worries not just John Cornyn but establishment Republicans as well. It worries Washington Republicans," Enten told host Kaitlan Collins.
"Why is that? Because looking ahead to the general election, Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988," Enten said, later adding, "But look at the polling ... the bottom line is this, Washington Republicans fear that Ken Paxton could be the nominee because that could lead to a very competitive general election. And based on the polling data, they have a lot to be worried about, Kaitlan."
Taking to X on Wednesday, Enten also said, "Mind blown about the early vote in Texas. TX Dems may outvote the GOP for the 1st time in a midterm primary since 2002! This indicates they're well on their way to having higher primary turnout nationally & since 06 the party w/ higher primary turnout won the House every time."
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What People Are Saying
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, to Newsweek via email Thursday night: "Texans haven't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the Eighties. Donald Trump won Texas in 2024 by more than 13 percentage points. Given past voting behavior, the GOP shouldn't be struggling in Texas. But the Republicans, like the Democrats, seem to lean toward nominating candidates most likely to discourage swing voters. It would be unfortunate for the Republicans if Texas ends up being closely contested, because of the attention and resources they'd need to invest in what should have been an easy win. Republican dollars spent in Texas represent money that might have been used in swing states. But if the GOP actually lost in Texas? That unlikely outcome would be devastating to Republican party leaders trying to hold on to the Senate."
In a campaign ad, The Cornyn Lonestar Victory Fund, a joint effort between the Cornyn campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, pointed to his wife "divorcing him on ‘biblical grounds," with the narrator adding, “Now, think of the Paxton dirty deeds we don’t know about yet."
Ken Paxton's daughter Mattie Hayworth called attacks on her father “ugly" in a column for the Texas Scorecard published Thursday. “My dad is not perfect; none of us are. But he is a man of deep faith, genuine love for his family, and an unrelenting commitment to doing right by the people of Texas."
What Happens Next
Primaries take place on March 3, with a late May runoff if no Republican candidate secures a majority.
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