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By Andrew Stanton
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Former President Donald Trump won nearly 4-in-10 Michigan voters who believe the U.S. support for Israel has been "too strong," according to early data from CNN's exit poll.
Michigan was expected to be among the closest battlegrounds of the presidential race, with forecasters giving Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump roughly even chances of victory. Harris needed to pull strong margins in suburbs and cities like Detroit and Grand Rapids, while Trump aimed to win over voters in rural and industrial areas.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas, and Israel's ground offensive in Israel, was crucial to Michigan voters, as the state has among the higher concentrations of Arab American voters, many of whom disapproved of the Biden administration's approach to the conflict.
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CNN's exit poll showed that 37 percent of respondents who believed the U.S. has been too supportive of Israel voted for Trump, while 61 percent still backed Harris. That represented about 30 percent of the electorate.
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Among those who believe the U.S. response has been "about right," Harris won 58 percent, compared to Trump's 40 percent. Eighty percent of those who said the U.S. response has not been strong enough voted for Trump, and only 16 voted for Harris. The potential for detractors over the conflict, specifically among Muslim and younger, progressive voters, has long been a concern for Democrats.
Exit polls measure voter attitudes about a range of topics but are subject to change as more surveys are released to news outlets as election night goes on. Data that could indicate the direction of the election is also withheld until polls close.
Early exit poll results have yielded some positive signs for Trump; nationally, 72 percent of Americans are unhappy with the direction the country is going, according to the exit poll. In Georgia, another battleground, exit polls showed Trump doing better with independents than he did four years earlier.
The exit poll of Michigan voters also showed Harris narrowly winning independent voters—49 percent to 46 percent, but winning over most voters who view themselves as moderate by an 18-point margin (58 percent to 40 percent).
The presidential race was still too close to call in Michigan and other battleground states as of 10:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.
The poll showed that 50 percent of those who didn't vote in 2020 backed Trump, while 47 percent voted for Harris. In total, these voters made up about 8 percent of Michigan's electorate.
With 15 Electoral College votes up for grabs, Michigan is part of what many elections experts view as Harris' easiest path to victory. If she wins the state, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, she would reach the needed 270 votes to win the race for the White House.
Michigan has been viewed as a toss-up in elections forecasts, as it has shifted between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections. President Joe Biden won the state by 2.8 points in 2020 and Trump won it by 0.3 points in 2016. FiveThirtyEight showed Harris up one point in its Election Day polling aggregate.
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