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Former Democratic North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper holds a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in a new poll released less than two months before Election Day in a race that could help determine which party controls the Senate.
A new Elon University poll of 800 voters released Thursday found Cooper holding an 11-point lead over Whatley—49 percent to 38 percent—among likely voters, while posting an even wider margin among registered voters.
The poll comes as Democrats eye a narrow path to reclaiming control of the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Polling suggests that the North Carolina Senate race is one of the Democrats' top flip opportunities in the midterms. To take back the majority, Democrats must defend their current seats—including in two states President Donald Trump won in his 2024 White House bid—and flip four others.
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North Carolina has long been a closely watched battleground state despite last electing a Democratic Senator in 2008. Trump has won the state three times, carrying it by about 1.3 percentage points over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and increasing that margin to roughly 3.2 points against Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.
Despite backing the GOP in 11 of the last 12 presidential elections, Democrats have had success at the statewide level, winning 8 of the last 9 governor races in the Tarheel State.
Jeff Allen, Cooper for North Carolina campaign manager, told Newsweek in a Thursday email, “Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington DC insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class.”
The statement continued, “A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate."
Newsweek has reached out to Whatley’s press team for comment via email on Thursday.
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North Carolina Senate Race
The North Carolina Senate race is for the seat currently held by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who is not seeking reelection. Cooper, who served as North Carolina governor from 2017 through 2024, is seeking a return to elected office. Whatley is the former chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the North Carolina Republican Party.
The race is widely viewed as one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities in 2026 and is expected to play a key role in the battle for Senate control.
North Carolina Senate Race: Latest Poll
Among likely voters in the Elon poll, Cooper leads Whatley 49 percent to 38 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Among registered voters, Cooper's support remains unchanged at 49 percent, while Whatley's slips to 36 percent, widening the gap slightly, with 14 percent undecided or backing someone else.
The findings point to a major name-recognition advantage for Cooper. Nearly three-quarters of registered voters, 71 percent, said they had heard "a great deal" or "some" about the former governor, compared with 47 percent for Whatley. Just 4 percent said they had never heard of Cooper, while 15 percent said they had never heard of Whatley.
Christopher Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University, told Newsweek that the poll is “just the latest showing Roy Cooper ahead,” adding that “the basic storylines—that Cooper leads Whatley and that Whatley has a name recognition problem--is undoubtedly true at this stage.”
He added that the real “question is whether this series of poor polling results for Whatley results in the GOP reducing spending in North Carolina.”
Cooper has a substantial fundraising advantage in the race. Federal Elections Commission (FEC) finance filings show the Democrat had about $20.7 million cash on hand at the end of June, compared with roughly $3.4 million for Whatley.
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Economic concerns remain the dominant issue for North Carolina voters heading into the election. The poll found that 86 percent of registered voters rated inflation and the cost of living as "very important" factors in their voting decisions, while 73 percent said the same about the economy and health care.
North Carolina voters appeared generally wary of U.S. military involvement in Iran. A majority, 52 percent, opposed the intervention, while 31 percent supported it.
The poll was conducted from August 21 to August 31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for likely voters and 5.05 percentage points for registered voters.
“Despite an increase in advertising, we measured relatively little movement over the last month in voter intentions about the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, with Democratic candidate Roy Cooper maintaining a strong lead over Republican Michael Whatley,” Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and professor of political science and public policy said in the poll’s release.
What Other Polls Show
Other recent polls have shown Cooper with a notable lead over Whatley.
A High Point University poll found Cooper leading Whatley 50 percent to 45 percent, a 5-point advantage that falls within the poll’s 5.2-percentage-point credibility interval. The poll shows that 3 percent are unsure or would not vote and 3 percent would pick someone else or another party. The survey of 800 self-identified registered voters, including 660 likely voters, was conducted August 3 to August 12.
A poll from the Carolina Journal showed Cooper ahead of Whatley by 12.5 points, 51.5 percent to 39 percent. Other candidates received support from 4.7 percent of respondents, while 4.8 percent were still undecided. The poll surveyed 600 respondents from August 9 to August 10, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
An Elon University poll showed Cooper up 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent. Three percent of respondents said they would vote for other candidates, while 2 percent were still undecided.
Cooper’s lead was bolstered by his support among independents, who broke for him 49 percent to Whatley’s 22 percent, according to the poll. It surveyed 800 North Carolina voters from July 23 to July 31, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
A Fox News poll showed Cooper up 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,005 registered voters from July 23 to July 27. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as Lean Democratic, writing in an April update, “We’ve long believed the North Carolina Senate race is the GOP seat Democrats are most likely to flip.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball shares the same rating.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregate puts Cooper with an 8.5 point lead, 51.8 percent to Whatley's 43.2 percent.
Prediction markets also point to a strong advantage for Cooper. As of Thursday, both Kalshi and Polymarket gave the former governor better than a 90 percent chance of defeating Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race.
With early in-person voting set to begin in five weeks, on October 15, the race is entering a critical stretch.
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Democrats' Chances of Flipping the Senate
Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and hold all of their own to take control of the chamber, which Republicans currently control 53-47. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms and Democrats have been optimistic about their chances of winning a majority in both chambers.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin’s averages show Democrats leading in exactly four GOP-held Senate races, putting the party within reach of the four seats it needs, but with little room for error. Its latest updated averages shows Democrats ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Texas and Alaska. Republicans lead in Iowa, Kansas and Florida.
The most competitive races in seats Democrats currently hold are in Georgia and Michigan, both of which narrowly backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election but did back former President Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine, which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by 3 points, as their top flip opportunities.
Prediction markets remain divided on which party will control the Senate after the midterms. As of Thursday, Kalshi gave Republicans a 52 percent chance of winning control of the chamber, while Polymarket slightly favored Democrats, giving them a 53 percent chance of securing a Senate majority.
Discussing North Carolina's importance to Democrats' Senate hopes, Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, previously told Newsweek that the race is "a must-win seat in the Senate for the Democrats if they are to have any chance of controlling the Senate."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland.
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