COVID Cases Are Rising in These Battleground States

Less than a week from the 2020 U.S. presidential election, new coronavirus cases were reported to be rising in key swing states, as of Friday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University (JHU).

The eight battleground states listed below saw an increase in their average daily case counts over the latest 14-day period. Daily case tallies below reflect a seven-day moving average of daily new infections reported from October 16 to 29.

Pennsylvania

  • Day 1 (October 16): 1,508.86
  • Day 14 (October 29): 2,344
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 2,344 on October 29
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 1,508.86 on October 16

The average daily case count in Pennsylvania rose sharply from late September, after flattening out from late July and rising since mid-June. The figure increased on a sharp incline from mid-March to early April, before declining until mid-June, according to JHU.

Michigan

  • Day 1 (October 16): 1,818.14
  • Day 14 (October 29): 3,608
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 3,608 on October 29
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 1,818.14 on October 16

The average number of daily new cases in Michigan has been rising sharply since late September, after flattening out since late July. The figure rose on a steep incline from mid-March to early April, before declining through early June, according to JHU.

Wisconsin

  • Day 1 (October 16): 3,099.86
  • Day 14 (October 29): 4,207.25
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 4,569 on October 22
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 3,099.86 on October 16

The average daily case tally in Wisconsin has been rising sharply since early September, after flattening out for months since March, according to JHU.

Florida

  • Day 1 (October 16): 2,957.57
  • Day 14 (October 29): 3,997
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 3,997 on October 29
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 2,957.57 on October 16

While the average daily case count in Florida increased in the latest two-week period, the figure has been declining sharply since mid-July, when it peaked at 11,870 on July 14. The average number of daily new infections flattened out from late August to early October, according to JHU.

Joe Biden Florida rally October 2020
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden arrives at a drive-in campaign rally at Broward College in Coconut Creek, Florida on October 29. Florida is among the battleground states where new COVID-19 cases were on an upward trend in recent weeks. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Arizona

  • Day 1 (October 16): 835.29
  • Day 14 (October 29): 1,079.25
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 1,141.60 on October 28
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 835.29 on October 16

The average number of daily new cases in Arizona was on an upward trend in the latest two-week period. However, the figure has declined dramatically since early July, when it peaked at 3,844 on July 3, and flattened out from late August to early October, according to JHU.

North Carolina

  • Day 1 (October 16): 2,060.71
  • Day 14 (October 29): 2,230.50
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 2,290 on October 26
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 2,010.14 on October 22

The average daily case count in North Carolina has been rising sharply since late September. The figure increased from mid-March to early July before declining through late September, according to JHU.

Nevada

  • Day 1 (October 16): 642.14
  • Day 14 (October 29): 712.25
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 814.50 on October 27
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 642.14 on October 16

The average number of daily new infections in Nevada has been rising since early September but has yet to reach the peak levels seen in mid-July. The figure remained flat from March to late May before rising sharply through mid-July and declining through early September, according to JHU.

Minnesota

  • Day 1 (October 16): 1,571.43
  • Day 14 (October 29): 2,127
  • Highest daily case count in 14-day period: 2,127 on October 29
  • Lowest daily case count in 14-day period: 1,495.29 on October 20

The average daily case count in Minnesota has been rising sharply from mid-September, after flattening out from early May. The figure increased from early April to early May, according to JHU.

The latest polls on COVID-19

According to the results of a Reuters/Ipsos online poll of around 1,000 likely voters in six swing states, which were revealed Wednesday, 48 to 52 percent of likely voters believe Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would be better at handling the COVID-19 pandemic, while 38 to 50 percent believe President Donald Trump would do better.

The polls done in Florida, Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina were conducted from October 21 to 27, while the polls in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were conducted from October 20 to 26. Each poll had a credibility interval of four percentage points, Reuters noted.

The graphic below, produced by Statista, illustrates winning margins of U.S. presidential elections since 1980.

Winning margins in US elections
STATISTA

The wider picture

The novel coronavirus has infected more than 45.1 million people across the globe since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, including more than 8.9 million in the U.S.

Globally, more than 1.1 million have died following infection, while more than 30.3 million have reportedly recovered as of Friday, according to JHU.

The graphic below, produced by Statista, illustrates the spread of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

Spread of COVID-19 in U.S.
STATISTA