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By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
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Republican Senator Dan Sullivan clawed back ground on Democrat Mary Peltola in the tight Alaska Senate race on Wednesday but suffered a setback in one of the state's GOP strongholds.
Of the 5,578 additional votes reported, Sullivan added 2,836 to Peltola's 2,561 to tighten his deficit to his Democratic rival to 3,975. However, an analyst pointed out he would have been hoping to gain a larger share, given most of the absentee ballots came from Matanuska-Susitna borough.
The southcentral Alaska region known as Mat-Su is often described as one of the “reddest” in the state because of its long-standing pattern of strongly conservative and Republican voting in both statewide and local politics.
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The conservative identity of the state was particularly evident in 2024, when all candidates competing for legislative seats in Mat-Su Borough districts on the November general-election ballot were Republicans, according to Alaska Beacon. This was a quirk made possible by the state’s top-four primary system, which allows multiple candidates from the same party to advance to the general election.
Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, said that the ballot count “was actually a very poor update for Sullivan.”
“Most of these absentee ballots came from Mat-Su, Alaska’s reddest region and his strongest remaining source of votes,” Donnini wrote on social media. “They simply weren’t red enough. His victory path is close to nonexistent at this point.”
"There was just a little from Peltola's base in AK HD 39--it was D+50 and offset most of Sullivan's gains," he added.
With 86 percent of votes counted, Peltola was still ahead with 48.9 percent of the vote to Sullivan’s 47.3 percent. Her lead is now less than the 4,100 votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. of Petersburg, whose candidacy in the election has been hotly disputed.
Yet, Peltola’s team pointed to the Mat-Su results as evidence of the strength of their campaign.
“As Mary continues to overperform in traditionally conservative areas around the state, today’s ballot drop is yet another proof point that Sullivan’s path to victory is non-existent,” Alaskans for Mary Campaign Manager, Cheryl Bruce, said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
“We anticipated far stronger support for Sullivan coming from the Mat-Su area, and by only chipping away 275 votes, it is clear that Sullivan’s remaining pockets of support are getting smaller by the day,” Bruce added.
“Voters are choosing Alaska first over party. As we’ve said, tens of thousands of outstanding early votes and absentee ballots from Anchorage and rural Alaska remain uncounted and will break for Mary, sending her to the United States Senate.”
Newsweek contacted Sullivan’s campaign for comment by email on Thursday morning.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
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