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By Matthew Robinson
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Democrat Mary Peltola holds a tight lead over Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska's Senate race ahead of the November election, a new poll has revealed.
The survey, conducted by AARP between September 8-11, showed Peltola on 46 percent of the vote in the initial ballot, and Sullivan on 41 percent. Meanwhile, another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. secured 4 percent; Gerald Heikes gained 3 percent; and 7 percent of voters were undecided.
Alaska advances four primary candidates regardless of party and uses ranked-choice voting in the general election, eliminating the lowest finisher and redistributing ballots according to voters' next available preferences until a candidate has a majority.
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The AARP poll showed that Peltola secured 53 percent of the vote in a final round match-up, compared to Sullivan's 47 percent.
Newsweek contacted Peltola and Sullivan's campaigns for comment by email.
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Peltola Leads Across Multiple Demographics
Peltola—the last remaining Democratic candidate in the race—maintains a strong lead among voters aged under 50, including a net 45-point lead among those aged 18-34, and a 18-point lead among those aged 35-49. In contrast, Sullivan maintains small leads among those aged 50 and older.
Peltola also has a strong 32-point lead among independents on 58 percent to Sullivan's 26 percent.
Meanwhile, Peltola leads among women and college-educated voters to a greater degree than Sullivan does with men and non-college-educated voters, the poll shows.
Peltola also has a stronger net favorability on +6 percent, compared to Sullivan on -4 percent.
"Peltola's image is in positive territory thanks to voters under 50, while she is a bit negative with those 50+. The reverse is true for Sullivan," the poll says.
"Peltola's image is demographically strongest with women, Alaska Natives, and college graduates. Sullivan is stronger with men, especially men 50+, and those without college degrees."
The poll was conducted on 800 likely voters across Alaska, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets allow traders to buy contracts linked to an election result, producing prices that can be read as implied probabilities.
They respond quickly to developments but may be influenced by liquidity, trader behavior and contract rules, meaning they should complement rather than replace polling.
As of September 17, Kalshi priced a Peltola victory at 68 percent and a Sullivan win at 35 percent, with $194,023 traded.
Polymarket placed Peltola at approximately 67 percent and Sullivan at approximately 34 percent, with about $521,069 in volume.
What The Campaigns Are Saying
Peltola has recently spoken out against factory trawling to protect Alaska's fisheries. "If we don't ban factory trawling now, Alaska fisheries don't stand a chance. That's why I'm fighting against the trawling industry to protect our Alaska way of life," she wrote on X on Wednesday.
She also accused Sullivan's campaign of accepting "nearly $300,000 in donations from the trawling industry," which she said was "decimating our salmon runs." She added that her campaign had accepted $0.
Meanwhile, Sullivan recently touted his Bycatch Reduction Act—aimed at reducing trawlers' bycatch of salmon and other species—which has passed the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
"Now, this legislation is headed to the Senate floor. It's the result of listening to Alaskans, bringing their concerns to Washington, and turning their ideas into action," he wrote on X on Wednesday.
He also said last week that he had worked with his colleagues and the Trump administration to "deliver the largest military build-up in Alaska since World War II."
"This is great for national security, but it’s also great for creating jobs for our hard-working families," he said.
For more analysis on the numbers shaping U.S. politics and the 2026 midterms, sign up for Newsweek's Midterms Monitor newsletter from Daniel Orton and Alex J. Rouhandeh.
Newsweek's reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton.
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