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By Anna Commander
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Darline Graham, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in South Carolina, received a potentially troubling poll on Wednesday, just one day before President Donald Trump is scheduled to appear in the Palmetto State.
The poll from The New York Times/Siena Research Institute shows that Graham and Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews are tied at 48 percent and 3 percent don't know.
The poll comes as Trump is set to rally with Graham on Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
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Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Trump won South Carolina during the 2024 presidential election versus then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
The late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, Darline's brother, won the seat in the 2020 election cycle along with the primary in June. He died from aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease, a preliminary examination by the D.C. Medical Examiner determined. He died in July at 71 years old, following what his office described as a "brief and sudden illness."
Following his death, Darline was sworn into his seat just three days later, with the backing of Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. The polling lows come as Trump has crisscrossed the country in the lead-up to November 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates, including previous stops in South Carolina.
Newsweek reached out to Graham and Andrews' campaigns via email on Wednesday for comment.
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What To Know
The poll shows that men prefer Graham 55 percent to Andrews' 40 percent, and the reverse for women, with 54 percent backing Andrews while 43 percent support Graham. Fifty-seven percent of Independents back Andrews versus 37 percent who support Graham.
Graham landed majority support from white, 45-year-olds and up, white with and without a college degree, and Republican likely voters. The survey shows that 89 percent of 2024 Trump voters backed Graham compared to 8 percent of Trump voters who support Andrews.
Graham's favorability in the poll is 44 percent compared to a 41 percent unfavorable rating. Andrews' favorability is 45 percent compared to a 29 percent unfavorable rating. The survey shows that 51 percent think Andrews would do a better job on the economy compared to 43 percent who say Graham would. On immigration, 50 percent said Graham would do a better job versus 44 percent who said Andrews would.
Forty-nine percent said Andrews would do what is best for ordinary South Carolinians compared to 46 percent who said Graham would.
The poll surveyed 707 likely voters in the state from October 19-26, 2026, with a 4.3 percent margin of error.
The Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican and prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket both show Graham leading on Wednesday afternoon.
D. Stephen Voss, political professor at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek on Wednesday, "Polls have been trending toward the Democrats with increasing margins, so surprises would not be impossible if that trajectory continues after most polls have left the field. Even the best polls are only snapshots in time; they cannot predict the future. Still, most voters have made their decisions by late October, so Republicans can have a reasonable hope that their standing has bottomed out and that they'll still hold on in states like South Carolina that have been consistently tilted their way.
"The big question mark hanging over all of these polls is whether Democrats will continue to exhibit the big enthusiasm gap in their favor that the party has enjoyed in lower-turnout special elections. Greater mobilization among Republican voters for these competitive statewide races would offer a cushion that the GOP until now has been lacking."
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, also told Newsweek on Wednesday, "It’s hard to believe, but that appears to be the poll at present. I think in the final couple days, a lot of Republicans are likely to 'come home,' out of sympathy if nothing else. But if Democrats can win there, then it’s hard to imagine that the Senate will remain out of their reach."
What Other Polling Shows
An InsiderAdvantage poll showed Graham with 46 percent compared to Andrews' 45 percent, Libertarian Kasie Whitener with 2 percent, Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett with 3 percent and 4 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters in South Carolina from September 28-29, 2026, and had a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
A previous InsiderAdvantage survey last month also showed Graham with a slight lead with 45.1 percent compared to Andrews' 43.2 percent. The survey shows that 3.2 percent said another candidate while 8.5 percent were undecided. That poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters from September 8-9, 2026, and had a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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