10
Loading video...
By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
After being officially chosen to replace her brother Lindsey Graham, interim South Carolina Senator Darline Graham now has a double-digit lead in the race to become the state’s GOP permanent Senate nominee, according to a new Quantus Insights poll.
The survey, conducted between August 5 and 6 and released just days before the August 11 special primary, found Graham leading with 30.4 percent support on the initial ballot.
Representative Ralph Norman was second at 17.5 percent, followed by Representative Russell Fry at 16.6 percent, and former Governor Mark Sanford at 15.4 percent. Another 11.7 percent of voters remained undecided.
Read More on News
...
When undecided voters who expressed a preference were allocated, Graham's support rose to an even higher 33.1 percent. Norman stood at 20.4 percent, Fry at 19.6 percent, and Sanford at 17.4 percent.
Newsweek has contacted Norman’s and Fry’s campaigns for comment by email on Saturday. A voice machine message was left for Graham's office.
What Do We Know About the August 11 Special Primary?
Early voting closed on Friday for the August 11 special primary in South Carolina, which was triggered by the sudden death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11 due to an "aortic dissection" caused by cardiovascular disease, according to the Washington D.C. medical examiner.
Ten Republican candidates are on the ballot to replace the late senator. These are:
- Darline Graham: Lindsey Graham’s sister and Trump-endorsed interim senator;
- Ralph Norman: Conservative congressman from South Carolina’s 5th District;
- Russell Fry: GOP congressman from the state’s 7th District;
- Mark Sanford: Former governor seeking a political comeback;
- Mark Lynch: Greenville businessman and previous Senate candidate;
- Duke Buckner: Attorney and educator running as a conservative outsider;
- Glenda Gail Parker: Retired Air Force officer focused on cost-of-living issues;
- Danny Ford II: Farmer and businessman emphasizing government accountability;
- Mark McBride: Former Myrtle Beach mayor and repeat federal candidate;
- Sam Shepherd: Biomedical engineer and entrepreneur.
What Are Graham’s Chances Of Winning?
While Graham had never run for or held elected office before, her candidacy received a major boost after President Donald Trump urged her to run and offered what he described as his "complete and total endorsement."
In a post published on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said of Graham: "We have known each other for a long time—She is a spectacular person, and a true American Patriot.
"Lindsey was one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, and his sister shares his deep love of our Country, and the State of South Carolina. During her visit, I asked Darline, for the Good of our Nation, to run for the U.S. Senate in the Special Republican Primary on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. She accepted, as there is nobody better to honor the legacy of her beloved brother, Lindsey."
He promised South Carolina voters that Graham "will never let you down."
...
The latest Quantus Insights survey is Graham’s strongest showing in a publicly released poll of the race so far. A recent Emerson College survey conducted between July 28 and 29 found Norman narrowly leading with 22 percent support, compared with Graham’s 19 percent and Fry's 12 percent. Twenty-five percent of respondents were undecided.
A Resonance Media Services poll released in July found Graham leading with 20.8 percent, compared with Norman’s 16.9 percent, in a crowded field where no candidate came close to a majority.
Taken together, the polling suggests Graham is definitely one of the race’s top contenders, but the battle for second place and a potential runoff berth remains highly competitive.
What Are Prediction Markets Saying?
Prediction markets continue to show greater confidence in Graham’s prospects than many traditional polls.
On Polymarket, users are currently betting on Graham, giving her roughly a 65 percent chance of finishing first in the August 11 special primary election. Norman is second at around 21 percent, while Fry trails at about 9 percent.
On Kalshi, bettors place Graham at approximately 47 percent to win the Republican primary overall, compared with 27 percent for Fry and 23 percent for Norman.
What Happens Next?
With only days to go before voting officially starts, the race to replace the late Lindsay Graham remains competitive, but his sister appears in a strong position to win the Republican nomination, according to polls.
Early voting in the primary closed on Friday after more than 41,000 ballots were cast in the first two days, according to the State Election Commission.
The contest is one of the most closely watched Republican primaries of the summer, as it is largely considered a test of Trump’s influence within the South Carolina GOP after he endorsed Graham shortly after her appointment to the Senate.
Gibbs Knotts, a professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University, told local news channel WRDW that the primary could have consequences far beyond the race.
"Republicans need to be careful—I still think it’s a long shot for a Democrat to win the U.S. Senate in South Carolina, but you don’t want to go into the general election having just pummeled each other so that the winner comes out with tons of negative baggage," Knotts said.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Trevor Davies
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines