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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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Democrat David Jolly faces an uphill battle to beat Republican Byron Donalds in the race for the Florida governor's mansion, but narrower polling margins than in recent election cycles have raised Democratic hopes of an upset in a state that has trended Republican in recent years.
The closely watched midterm elections will determine control of Congress as Republicans try to fight off a blue wave and defend their narrow majorities in both the Senate and House. There are several competitive gubernatorial races taking place as well, and Florida is among them. Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited, leaving the seat open.
The last time a Democratic governor served the Sunshine State was in 1999 with Kenneth Hood Mackay, more than 25 years ago. However, recent polls still show a tough fight between Jolly and Donalds with the latter leading his Democratic opponent by a single-digit margin. Donalds has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, and the president rallied with Donalds during his campaign.
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The gubernatorial race has been more competitive than one would expect given Florida's right lean in recent years, with Trump carrying the state by roughly 13 points in 2024 and DeSantis winning reelection by nearly 20 points in 2022. However, while Donalds has led in most polls since both candidates were selected by their respective parties to run for the seat in August, his lead over Jolly is not as wide as what Republicans have experienced in recent years.
Newsweek reached out to both campaigns by email for comment on Monday.
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David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds: What Latest Polls Show
Donalds maintained a lead of 4 to 6 percentage points over Jolly in the most recent polls.
- InsiderAdvantage: An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on October 28 and 29 of 1,200 likely voters found that 49 percent said they planned to vote for Donalds compared to 45 percent for Jolly. Four percent were still undecided, and the margin of error was 2.83 percent.
- New York Times/Siena University: A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted from October 19 to 25 of 813 likely voters found that 48 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Donalds compared to 44 percent who said Jolly. Seven percent of respondents either said they didn't know who they planned to vote for or refused to respond. The margin of error was 3.9 percent.
- Echelon Insights: An Echelon Insights poll of 515 likely voters from October 16 to 23 found that 50 percent of people surveyed said they planned to vote for Donalds, compared to 44 percent who said Jolly. Five percent were still unsure, and the margin of error was 5 percent.
A chart created by Newsweek summarizes the three polls.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, updated its rating of Florida's gubernatorial race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" on October 1, signaling a more competitive contest than the state has seen in recent election cycles.
Jolly is a former Republican who previously represented Florida's 13th District in the U.S. House. After leaving the Republican Party, Jolly became an independent and then joined the Forward Party before becoming a Democrat. Donalds currently represents Florida's 19th Congressional District in the U.S. House.
David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds: What Prediction Markets Show
Jolly faces even tougher odds of overcoming Donalds in the election when looking at prediction markets. Betting odds on Kalshi showed that Donalds has a 63 percent chance of winning the governor's mansion, as opposed to 37 percent for Jolly.
On Polymarket, Donalds had 63 percent odds compared to Jolly's 39 percent.
What Happens Next
Florida polls will open at 7 a.m. local time Tuesday and remain open until 7 p.m. Any voters standing in line when the polls close will still be able to vote. The new Florida governor will take office in January.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins
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