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By Andrew Stanton
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Democratic turnout surged in the primary elections in several key states like Georgia, Michigan and Texas ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
As the midterms inch closer, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances of winning key races across the country.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating has fueled Democrats’ hopes of expanding the battleground. Democrats also see signs of heightened enthusiasm among their voters, including higher primary turnout in key states, though some experts do not view primary turnout as predictive.
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Across the board, turnout has risen during the Trump era as more and more Americans are engaged in politics. Numerous factors can influence primary turnout, including voter motivation, as well as the number of contentious primaries each party has; if one party has more contested primaries, they may see higher turnout.
So far, Democrats are seeing a rise in turnout in several key states they are hoping to win in November.
What Does Primary Turnout Signal for the Midterms?
Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek it’s normally difficult to conclude much about a general election based on primary turnout.
“However, it does appear that Democrats are enjoying more intense interest and enthusiasm among their primary voters than Republicans. This reflects the heightened media and public interest generated by the candidates on the Left on the Democratic side, and some ambivalence and uncertainty on the Republican side,” he said.
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It’s still an “open question” whether that enthusiasm gap will extend to the general election, he said.
“Whether that enthusiasm gap extends to the general election is an open question. Republicans may become motivated to counter the Leftward drift of the Democrats. But in any case, none of the other indicators suggest anything good for Republicans in the mid-terms,” he said.
Democrats’ high primary turnout does signal enthusiasm among their voters, but that’s something they’ll need to maintain through the general election, Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Program at George Washington University, told Newsweek on Wednesday.
“Democrats are angry and highly motivated to take on not just Trump, but many want to take on the Democratic establishment in DC,” he said.
He noted that Democrats may still have a difficult time working to “heal the wounds” of some of their most contested primaries, and that may be a more difficult task in cases where moderates win because progressive voters “care more about ideological purity than compromise.”
Republicans may be facing lower turnout because they have fewer competitive races, and they may be less enthusiastic about their chances in November, he said.
“Two key variables tend to drive turnout: the perceived closeness of the race and the perceived importance of the office. For Democrats, these races are extremely important because they want to nominate candidates to the general election who will take on the Trump administration,” he said.
Some politics experts have been skeptical that there is any connection between turnout in a primary and the eventual results of a general election, especially as uncontested or uncompetitive primaries can drive down turnout.
Nate Silver wrote in a Substack post that Democratic turnout surged in Texas earlier this year but noted he is not one to believe that necessarily means Democrats are favored to flip the seat.
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“I’m not a big believer in primary turnout being predictive of general election outcomes, but this is nevertheless a big number for Democrats in a red state,” he wrote.
Republican National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek that Republicans are “confident voters will turn out to protect and expand our majorities” as Trump is “barnstorming the country touting his America First agenda that’s lowered taxes, secured our border, and made our streets safe.”
“It’s common sense versus communism at the ballot box this November, and our candidates are on offense to ensure Americans reject Democrats’ plans to turn our country into a third-world dystopia,” she said.
A Democratic National Committee spokesperson told Newsweek that primary turnout “shows that our grassroots organizing is paying off across the country.”
“At a time when voters are ready to turn the page on Republicans’ harmful cost-spiking agenda, Americans are energized, fired up, and ready to elect Democrats who will make life more affordable, protect healthcare, tackle Republicans’ corruption, and put working families first,” the spokesperson said.
How Voter Turnout Compares in Six Key States
Georgia
The nation’s latest battleground is going to be the site of some of the most competitive primaries of the midterms. Although it backed Trump by about 2 points in 2024, Democrats are hopeful about their chances in the state this time around.
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is up for reelection, while the governor race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, and Republican businessman Rick Jackson is viewed as a toss-up.
Both parties had highly competitive governor primaries in May, but Democrats saw higher turnout on their side. In the Republican primary, there were a total of 933,817 votes cast, according to the Georgia secretary of state’s office. That compares to 1,081,811 votes cast on the Democratic side.
That’s a notable shift from the 2018 midterms, the last time both parties had a primary in the governor race, when 607,441 votes were cast in the GOP primary and 555,089 votes were cast in the Democratic primary.
Iowa
Democrats are also hoping to make a comeback in Iowa, a former swing state that has shifted toward Republicans over recent cycles. Iowa backed Trump by 13 points in 2024, but it backed former President Barack Obama in his 2008 and 2012 runs.
In the governor race, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand is facing Republican Zach Lahn. In the Senate race, Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are running.
Sand's primary was uncontested, and Republicans outvoted Democrats in the Senate primary, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office.
There were 206,786 votes cast in the Republican Senate primary, compared to 192,136 votes in the Democratic primary.
For comparison, there were 198,858 Republican ballots and 158,745 Democratic ballots cast in 2022. In 2018, there were 105,183 Republican ballots cast, compared to 182,736 Democratic ballots cast. Democrats had several competitive races for governor and in congressional races, while Republican races were less competitive.
Maine
The Maine Senate race is a top target for Democrats, as they hope to topple longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins, who has won reelection in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan image, despite the state’s Democratic lean. Maine backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024.
Collins ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and just over 216,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary. However, the party’s chosen candidate, Graham Platner, withdrew from the race amid sexual abuse allegations, which he has denied. Troy Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, was selected as the new nominee during a convention.
But both parties had competitive governor races. Democrat Hannah Pingree, the former speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, and Republican Bobby Charles emerged victorious from their respective primaries.
In total, there were 217,493 votes cast in the Democratic primary and 129,084 votes cast in the Republican primary, according to the Maine secretary of state’s office.
That marks an increase for Democrats compared to their last contested primary in 2018, when there were 126,139 ballots cast. Republicans have not had contested governor primaries in recent cycles.
Michigan
Democrats and Republicans both had a competitive primary in the governor race, though only Democrats had a competitive Senate primary.
Michigan went to Trump by fewer than 2 points in 2024, and it’s viewed as one of the most evenly divided battlegrounds across the country.
In the Senate race, progressive public health official Abdul El-Sayed is facing former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican. Democratic Senator Gary Peters opted to retire at the end of his term. In the governor race, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Republican Representative John James are running.
In the governor primary, there were 1,494,915 ballots cast for Democrats and 929,475 ballots cast for Republicans, according to the Michigan Secretary of State office. In the Senate primary, there were 1,528,954 ballots cast for Democrats and 880,519 cast for Rogers in the GOP primary, though he ran unopposed, so the race was simply not competitive.
There was an open Senate race in 2024, which saw 933,844 votes cast in the Democratic primary and 879,569 votes cast in the Republican primary.
In 2018, the last time both parties had an open governor race, there were 989,576 Republican ballots cast and 1,131,447 Democratic ballots cast.
Texas
Democrats saw a particularly strong primary turnout surge in Texas, a historically Republican state that has the potential to become competitive in November. The Senate race, in which Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state legislator James Talarico are competing, is especially competitive.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report favor Republicans in the governor race, where Governor Greg Abbott is facing Democratic legislator Gina Hinojosa.
There were 2,166,910 votes cast in the Republican Senate primary, compared to 2,319,187 ballots cast in the Democratic primary. In the governor primary, there were 2,156,879 ballots cast on the Republican side and 2,203,671 on the Democratic side.
In 2024, there were 2,239,958 ballots cast in the Republican Senate primary, compared to 967,503 ballots cast on the Democratic side.
There was also a notable gap in 2018, when Democrats had more competitive primaries than Republicans but still significantly lagged in turnout. There were 1,549,573 votes cast in the Senate Republican primary, compared to 1,042,914 votes cast in the Democratic primary.
In the governor race that year, there were 1,549,006 votes cast for Republicans and 1,022,558 ballots cast for Democrats.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is another evenly divided state that narrowly went to Trump in 2024; in fact, it was the closest state in the most recent presidential race, and has a competitive gubernatorial race this year, as Democratic Governor Tony Evers retires.
Voters in the state cast their ballots on Tuesday, picking Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Republican Representative Tom Tiffany as the Democratic and Republican nominees, respectively. While the Democratic primary against state legislator Francesca Hong was very competitive, the Republican primary was not, with turnout being down for the party.
According to The New York Times, there were 798,018 Democratic ballots cast compared to 490,819 ballots cast with more than 95 percent reporting on Wednesday.
In 2022, Republicans outvoted Democrats in the Senate primaries, with 672,975 votes being cast in the Republican primary and 501,089 ballots cast in the Democratic primary.
In 2018, there were 537,719 votes cast in the Democratic governor primary, compared to 455,966 votes cast in the Republican primary. The Republican primary, in which then-Governor Scott Walker ran, was not competitive.
What Happens Next
Many of these races are expected to be competitive in November. Here is a look at how the Cook Political Report classifies each of the elections.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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